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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The remarkable resilience of the economy during the pandemic, driven by policy support, favorable credit conditions and a favorable external environment, has almost returned the level of GDP to its pre-pandemic projected trend. Reflecting the prevalence of domestic factors, headline inflation eased to 3 percent (the lower limit of the inflation target band) at end-2021. For 2022, growth is expected to moderate while inflation is expected to rise in line with global inflationary pressures. Despite the resilience, social indicators such as poverty and malnutrition remain high. The outlook is very uncertain with significant downside risks, mostly external, including from the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and the tightening of global financial conditions in response to global inflationary pressures.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Fundamentals remain strong and growth has revived after three years of subpar performance. Improved budgetary execution and monetary accommodation, broadly in line with past staff advice, are providing demand support as the economy navigates weaker terms of trade. Near-term growth is poised for a rebound on the back of fiscal impulse from the 2019 expansionary budget, exports recovery after last year’s slump, and construction-driven investment. Lack of progress on long-delayed business climate and public sector reforms, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) agenda, and financial inclusion, dampen medium-term prospects.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes remittances and households’ behavior in Guatemala. Remittances are a structural feature of the Guatemala economy. In 2017, remittance flows accounted for over 11 percent of GDP and benefitted over 1.5 million of Guatemalan households. The effects of remittances on the labor supply are estimated. There is no evidence of remittance-induced work disincentives. The results suggest that the labor supply for members of remittance-receiving households is relatively more elastic, most markedly so for the 41-65 age group: a one percent increase in weekly wages leads to a 0.5 percent increase in weekly hours worked for members of remittance-receiving households, versus 0.2 percent increase for non-remittance-receiving households.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that a sound monetary policy management in Guatemala has helped keep inflation expectations firmly anchored. Fiscal deficits have remained at decade lows on the back of low debt tolerance and inadequate budgetary execution. Terms of trade gains and an upsurge in remittances inflows moved the current account into a sizable surplus. The financial system is sound and well-regulated while vulnerabilities seem manageable. Growth performance nevertheless falls shorts of the rates needed to achieve Guatemala’s aspirations to meaningfully lift the living standards of its citizens. Near-term growth prospects remain subdued, at 3.2 percent in 2018 and 3.6 percent in 2019.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the macroeconomic performance of Guatemala has been solid. The economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2015, slightly above potential, despite a slowdown in public consumption and investment during the crisis. Private consumption was lifted by lower oil prices and strong remittances. The latter also boosted the external position, creating a comfortable reserve cushion. With inflation well anchored, monetary policy was eased to support growth. The macroeconomic outlook remains benign. Growth is set to return to its trend rate of 3.8 percent in 2016 and gradually rise to 4 percent in the medium term, reflecting the positive impact of efforts to increase transparency and efficiency in public spending.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output growth and the output gap for Guatemala. Potential output growth averaged 4.4 percent just before the global financial crisis but has since declined to 3.75 percent owing to lower capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. It is estimated at 3.8 percent in 2016, and the output gap has virtually closed. Potential growth is expected to reach 4 percent in the medium term owing to the expected improvements in TFP growth. Policies should also prioritize mobilizing domestic savings to invest and build a higher capital stock.
International Monetary Fund
Owing to the deteriorating economy of Guatemala, authorities requested a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with access of SDR 630.6 million in April 2009, which aimed at safeguarding macroeconomic and financial stability and anchoring investor confidence. Executive Directors have agreed that the SBA is successful in mitigating the financial crisis. Directors have appreciated the authorities’ commitment in implementing policies focused on short-term macroeconomic and financial stability on time, and also have urged to look into some important vulnerabilities that would have strengthened the fiscal framework.
International Monetary Fund
The Guatemalan economy is recovering faster than anticipated during the previous program review. The economic outlook has improved since the second program review. The fiscal deficit in 2010 will decline somewhat. There was agreement that a comprehensive tax reform remains the key medium-term challenge. There was agreement that monetary policy should remain vigilant. There has been progress in advancing financial sector reforms, but key elements of the reform agenda are pending. The near-term outlook has improved since the second program review, and downside risks have declined further.
International Monetary Fund
The staff report on Guatemala’s 2009 Article IV Consultation and Second Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Requests for Modification of Performance Criterion and Consultation Clause are presented. There are signs that the Guatemalan economy is starting to recover. Real GDP growth and inflation are picking up, imports have begun to grow, and net private capital flows have stabilized. Real GDP growth is likely to remain low and inflation subdued. Over the medium term, economic growth is expected to be weaker than prior to the global crisis, and inflation to stabilize at trading partners’ levels.