International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &, Review Department, and International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
The Fund is facing strong demand for financing from low-income countries (LICs). Commodity price shocks and loose fiscal policies have contributed to rising debt levels and financing needs in many countries. Several developing states, especially smaller ones, are also increasingly vulnerable to large natural disasters. At the same time, many LICs less dependent on commodity exports have enjoyed robust growth in recent years, with more contained vulnerabilities.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Ebola epidemic and the fall in commodity prices have revealed the vulnerabilities of Liberia’s economy. After barely positive growth in 2014, GDP was flat in 2015 mainly owing to the decline in activity in the iron ore and rubber sectors. Although international gross reserves increased in 2015, the Central Bank of Liberia’s net foreign exchange position declined owing to operational deficits and exceptional support to the banking sector. In 2016, growth is expected to rise to 2.5 percent, thanks to a rebound in services and the start of gold production, while inflation should stay in the single digits.
This paper presents a Joint Staff Advisory Note on Guinea’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Baseline economic growth is projected to accelerate to 5.2 percent in 2014 and beyond, up from just under 4 percent in 2012. This projection is based on an acceleration of economic growth in the construction sector in response to massive investment outlays by mining companies. Private investment is projected to increase from 17.8 percent of GDP in 2012 to more than 40 percent in 2014. The PRSP proposes a sharp increase in funding for education as a share of total public expenditures over the PRSP period, while total fiscal resources also increase.
The attached Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) on the Implementation of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for Guinea, prepared jointly by the staffs of the World Bank and the IMF, was distributed with the member country’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) to the Executive Boards of the two institutions. The objective of the JSAN is to provide focused, frank, and constructive feedback to the country on progress in implementing its Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS).
The health of the population in Guinea is also one of the determinants of poverty, owing to its impact on the ability of the population to work with vigor. There are large disparities depending on the urban/rural residence and administrative region. In terms of the poverty level of households, consultation rates among households in the first and second quintiles (the poorest 40 percent) are considerably lower (67.7 percent and 74.3 percent, respectively) than the national average. Health sector financing remains weak.
Despite notable potential in mining and agriculture, Guinea’s macroeconomic situation deteriorated between 2002 and 2006. Since April 2007, the government has begun to stabilize the economy by tightening fiscal and monetary policies. Achieving the targeted completion rate in the education sector will require considerable financial and human resources. IMF staff recognize the significant potential of agriculture in setting the stage for accelerated and more inclusive economic growth in Guinea. The macroeconomic objectives in the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-II) are broadly consistent with the most recent medium-term macroeconomic framework.
Guinea’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) presented well-defined poverty reduction. The government should strengthen capacity to monitor policy and PRS outcomes to facilitate the central role of the PRS as both a policy document and a tool to coordinate policies. Strong macroeconomic policies have to be adopted while ensuring that the composition of expenditure identifies policy weaknesses related to governance and public service delivery, and sets out appropriate policy responses. Linking policies and poverty-reduction strategies to policy targets and outcome indicators is suggested by Executive Directors.
This paper presents key findings of the Annual Progress Report (APR) on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Guinea. Conditions for implementing the Poverty Reduction Strategy were particularly difficult in 2004, and were marked by: persistent insecurity in the subregion; low levels of investment in priority sectors; and falling prices for mining output, in particular for bauxite, the country's main export. The outcomes achieved during fiscal year 2004 are a reflection of this constraining environment. Under the circumstances, no progress was made in reconciling the central government budget with the PRSP objectives.
This document updates the information provided in the September 2005 Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative – Status of Implementation report. It deals exclusively with the enhanced HIPC Initiative, and does not consider the implications of the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI).
This paper focuses on Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement for Guinea. Guinea’s stabilization and reform efforts have been almost continuously supported by IMF financial arrangements since 1987. The paper reviews developments under the last two IMF-supported programs during 1997–2004. It highlights that Guinea’s performance under these programs has been disappointing. The paper discusses program objectives, policies, and performance and reflects on lessons learned and the remaining challenges. It also presents a discussion on possible future relations between the IMF and Guinea.