Africa > Guinea

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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This IMF Staff Report highlights that the robust economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire is projected to continue in 2018. The inflation remains subdued. The program aims to achieve a sustainable balance of payments position, foster inclusive growth and poverty reduction, and create fiscal space for investing in priority infrastructure and social projects. Strong economic performance since 2012, with average annual growth of 9 percent, reflected the economic recovery following political normalization, improved business environment, strong program of reforms, and supportive fiscal policy. A key policy challenge is to sustain robust growth and make it more inclusive and private sector-driven. Robust medium-term growth is expected to be supported by domestic demand.
Mr. Philippe Egoume Bossogo and Mr. Ankouvi Nayo
This paper analyzes the impact of political instability in Côte d’Ivoire on WAEMU trade over 1990-2007, applying panel econometric techniques to a gravity model of trade within WAEMU and between WAEMU and the rest of the world. The paper finds that intra-regional trade represents a small share of total WAEMU trade and that Côte d’Ivoire accounts for around half of that total, highlighting the importance of this country for the region. The political instability in Côte d’Ivoire has led to an increase in transaction costs, making it relatively more costly for member countries to trade with each other than with the rest of world. Instability has also resulted in a diversion of trade away from Côte d’Ivoire in favor of other countries equipped with ports and in a reduction of WAEMU overall potential trade. For Côte d’Ivoire alone, lost trade is estimated at around 40 percent of its potential trade with the WAEMU in the absence of instability. With a normalization in Côte d’Ivoire, enhanced security and further integration would be essential to achieve higher levels of trade and growth in the WAEMU region.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the performance of Guinea-Bissau Under the program supported by Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance (EPCA). Guinea-Bissau has made progress in stabilizing its fiscal situation under difficult circumstances and is moving steadily to implement structural reforms. Four of the six end-March quantitative indicators were met; the other two are expected to be met for the year as a whole. All structural indicators were implemented, albeit with some delay. The authorities recognize the importance of accelerating structural fiscal reforms to further build capacity and improve confidence in the economy.
Mr. Andreas Billmeier and Tommaso Nannicini
Studies of the impact of trade openness on growth are based either on cross-country analysis-which lacks transparency-or case studies-which lack statistical rigor. We apply transparent econometric methods drawn from the treatment evaluation literature to make the comparison between treated (i.e., open) and control (i.e., closed) countries explicit while remaining within a unified statistical framework. First, matching estimators highlight the rather far-fetched country comparisons underlying common cross-country results. When appropriately restricting the sample, we confirm a positive and significant effect of openness on growth. Second, we apply synthetic control methods-which account for endogeneity due to unobservable heterogeneity-to countries that liberalized their trade regime and we show that trade liberalization has often had a positive effect on growth.
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines and tests the existence of political budget cycles in Papua New Guinea during the period 1988–2004. Several factors point to the existence of political budget cycles in Papua New Guinea. The paper provides an overview of the political business cycle literature, and Papua New Guinea’s political structure and processes. It also describes the data set and the empirical methods used to test for the presence of election-influenced spending, and presents the results of a time-series analysis.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper reviews the path of Papua New Guinea’s external debt over the last decade. It explains the underlying macroeconomic framework to better understand the dynamics behind the external debt profile, and assesses the relative scale of the public external debt burden. It addresses the issue of public debt sustainability over the medium term. This paper also summarizes the government’s ongoing reform effort aimed at reducing the size of the civil service and the payroll.
International Monetary Fund
This report describes Papua New Guinea's recent economic developments by assessing its output and price developments. The paper discusses the central government finances, tax and expenditure policies, the public sector reform program, and pension funds. The study also analyzes the institutional and operational aspects of the Bank of Papua New Guinea under the central banking act; instruments of monetary policy; and monetary policy and developments. The report reviews the nature and operation of the foreign exchange market, developments in the balance of payments, and external debt trends.