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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
While the non-mining sector was severely impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, overall growth in Guinea remains strong, reaching 7 percent in 2020, driven by booming mining production. Inflation exceeded 12 percent as a result of COVID-related supply disruptions and the ongoing monetary and fiscal response. The already weak social indicators have deteriorated further.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
While the non-mining sector was severely impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, overall growth in Guinea remains strong, reaching 7 percent in 2020, driven by booming mining production. Inflation exceeded 12 percent as a result of COVID-related supply disruptions and the ongoing monetary and fiscal response. The already weak social indicators have deteriorated further.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The fourth and last technical assistance (TA) mission for the benefit of Guinea, under the project on improving external sector statistics (ESS) in 17 Francophone countries of West and Central Africa, funded by the Japanese government and administered by the IMF, took place in Conakry during August 26–30, 2019. The mission was hosted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea (BCRG), which is the institution responsible for compiling the ESS. The main points addressed by the mission were to support (i) the process of participating in the coordinated direct investment survey (CDIS), (ii) the detailed technical work for improving the current and financial accounts, and (iii) the implementation of recommendations from previous missions.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The fourth and last technical assistance (TA) mission for the benefit of Guinea, under the project on improving external sector statistics (ESS) in 17 Francophone countries of West and Central Africa, funded by the Japanese government and administered by the IMF, took place in Conakry during August 26–30, 2019. The mission was hosted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea (BCRG), which is the institution responsible for compiling the ESS. The main points addressed by the mission were to support (i) the process of participating in the coordinated direct investment survey (CDIS), (ii) the detailed technical work for improving the current and financial accounts, and (iii) the implementation of recommendations from previous missions.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Real growth is expected at 5.8 percent in 2020, supported by rebounding mining production and investment-led construction activity. Legislative elections and a referendum for a new constitution will be held in March and presidential elections by end-year. Protests against the referendum are ongoing. Risks of political and social instability are high. Covid-19. The baseline scenario is based on the initial global downward revisions to growth due to the COVID-19 outbreak and assumes no outbreak in Guinea. As of March 10, 2020, there was no declared coronavirus case in Guinea. As the situation evolves, the country authorities and staff are keeping a close watch on macroeconomic developments, needed policy responses, and their impact on financing needs.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on Guinea’s Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review. While performance under the IMF-supported program remains broadly satisfactory, Guinea faces significant downside risks related to coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The IMF will remain closely engaged with the Guinean country authorities as the situation evolves, and as the authorities further develop their policy responses and financing needs change. The ECF arrangement supports strengthening Guinea’s resilience, scaling-up growth-supporting investment and social-safety nets and promoting private sector development. Achieving the programmed basic fiscal surplus in 2020 will contribute to containing inflation and preserving debt sustainability. Mobilizing additional tax revenues and reducing electricity subsidies will create fiscal space to scale-up growth-supporting public investments and strengthen social safety nets. Implementing programmed tax revenues measures, adopting an automatic petroleum products price adjustment mechanism, and advancing the multi-year electricity tariff reform is key. A prudent borrowing strategy will support scaling-up growth-supporting public investment.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission visited Guinea during July 9–20, 2018, as part of the project funded by the Government of Japan to improve external sector statistics (ESS) in 17 Francophone African countries. This was the third mission under this project following the missions in 2016 and 2017. The mission was hosted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea (BCRG), which is responsible for compiling ESS. The mission addressed the following main issues (i) improvement of the surveys on migrant remittances and informal trade; (ii) perform detailed technical work to improve ESS; and (iii) participation in the coordinated direct investment survey (CDIS) and the quarterly external debt statistics (QEDS) database. The mission also reviewed the status of implementation of the recommendations from the previous TA missions.