The fourth and last technical assistance (TA) mission for the benefit of Guinea, under the project on improving external sector statistics (ESS) in 17 Francophone countries of West and Central Africa, funded by the Japanese government and administered by the IMF, took place in Conakry during August 26–30, 2019. The mission was hosted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea (BCRG), which is the institution responsible for compiling the ESS. The main points addressed by the mission were to support (i) the process of participating in the coordinated direct investment survey (CDIS), (ii) the detailed technical work for improving the current and financial accounts, and (iii) the implementation of recommendations from previous missions.
In direct response to the COVID-19 crisis the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board has adopted some immediate enhancements to its Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) to enable the Fund to provide debt service relief for its poorest and most vulnerable members. The CCRT enables the IMF to deliver grants for debt relief benefiting eligible low-income countries in the wake of catastrophic natural disasters and major, fast-spreading public health emergencies.
This Technical Assistance report on Guinea addressed issues like: improvement of the surveys on migrant remittances and informal trade; perform detailed technical work to improve external sector statistics (ESS); and participation in the coordinated direct investment survey and the quarterly external debt statistics database. The mission observed that the recommendations from the previous technical assistance mission had been satisfactorily implemented. The report also describes that the timeliness of ESS, based on international standards, should be improved, mainly for the international investment position and the quarterly balance of payments statistics. In order to contribute to progress in the areas discussed in the report, the mission made a one-year detailed action plan, with priority given to the recommendations of importance in improving ESS. The recommendation on reporting reinvested earnings of direct investment enterprises, net increases in insurance company liabilities, and income on reserve assets has partially been implemented.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &, Review Department, and International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
The Fund is facing strong demand for financing from low-income countries (LICs). Commodity price shocks and loose fiscal policies have contributed to rising debt levels and financing needs in many countries. Several developing states, especially smaller ones, are also increasingly vulnerable to large natural disasters. At the same time, many LICs less dependent on commodity exports have enjoyed robust growth in recent years, with more contained vulnerabilities.
This paper discusses Guinea’s Request for Debt Relief Under the Catastrophe Containment (CC) Window of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief (CCR) Trust. Since early 2014, Guinea has been experiencing an ongoing Ebola epidemic that has spread to several countries in the region. The immediate economic effect of the Ebola epidemic has been a pronounced slowdown in 2014. Performance under the Extended Credit Facility arrangement has been satisfactory, the difficult macroeconomic environment notwithstanding. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for assistance under the CC window of the CCR Trust given the nature of the public health disaster, and the ensuing financing needs to contain the disease and rehabilitate Guinea’s public health system.
This Selected Issues paper explores the medium-term determinants of the current account balance in Papua New Guinea. It provides an assessment of the exchange rate, and presents some background on recent exchange rate developments. It uses two dynamic panel regression models to estimate the current account and exchange rate determinants across 55 countries. The paper applies the estimation results to Papua New Guinea’s data and presents the exchange rate assessment for the kina under a baseline scenario and a terms-of-trade-shock scenario.
Dorothy Engmann, Mr. Ousmane Dore, and Benoít Anne
This paper evaluates the impact of the sociopolitical crisis in Côte d'Ivoire on the economies of its neighbors. Using a nonsubjective weighted index of regional instability in cross-country time-series regressions, it shows that the increase in regional instability caused by domestic instability in Côte d'Ivoire had a negative effect on the growth performance of its most direct neighbors, but no significant effect on the subregion as a whole including the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The paper also examines the channels through which such spillover effects took place.
Do exchange-rate-based stabilizations generate distinctive economic dynamics? To address this question, this paper identifies stabilization episodes using criteria that differ from those in previous empirical studies of exchange-rate-based stabilizations. We find that, while some differences can be detected between exchange-rate-based stabilizations and stabilizations where the exchange rate is not the anchor, the behavior of important variables does not appear to differ—especially output growth, which is good in both cases. There is also no evidence that fiscal discipline is enhanced by adopting an exchange-rate anchor, or that there are any systematic differences in the success records of stabilizations that use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor and those that do not.
The general objective of this study is to analyze the external debt and debt burdens of the severely indebted sub-Saharan African countries, estimate the magnitude of capital flight from them, and relate the estimate of capital flight to some macroeconomic aggregates. The study also contains policy implications of international efforts to deal with the high levels of external debt in sub-Saharan Africa in conditions of extreme poverty, and stagnant and declining exports. It questions the theoretical foundation in which the external debt strategy has been based and offers solutions to the external debt problem.