This paper concludes that the existing framework remains broadly appropriate, but proposes methodological refinements to improve the assessment of market access, clarifies how serious short-term vulnerabilities are assessed, and proposes a modest extension of the transition period before graduation decisions become effective.
The macroeconomic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa continues to strengthen. Growth is expected to increase from 2.7 percent in 2017 to 3.1 percent in 2018, reflecting domestic policy adjustments and a supportive external environment, including continued steady growth in the global economy, higher commodity prices, and accommodative external financing conditions. Inflation is abating; and fiscal imbalances are being contained in many countries. Over the medium term, and on current policies, growth is expected to accelerate to about 4 percent, too low to create the number of jobs needed to absorb anticipated new entrants into labor markets.
This paper discusses Ghana’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility arrangement and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), and Modifications of PCs. Program implementation in Ghana remains broadly satisfactory, but the economic outlook remains difficult and fiscal challenges are mounting. The growth outlook for 2016 and 2017 has weakened, mainly owing to disruptions in oil production, and non-oil economic activity is expected to remain subdued owing to continued fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy. There was broad agreement with the authorities on the need to sustain a tight monetary stance given the still high inflation. The IMF staff recommends completion of the third review.
Mr. Emre Alper, Mr. R. Armando Morales, and Mr. Fan Yang
This paper analyzes the degree to which volatility in interbank interest rates leads to volatility in financial instruments with longer maturities (e.g., T-bills) in Kenya since 2012, year in which the monetary policy framework switched to a forward-looking approach, relative to seven other inflation targeting (IT) countries (Ghana, Hungary, Poland, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand, and Uganda). Kenya shows strong volatility transmission and high persistence similar to other countries in transition to a more forward-looking monetary policy framework. These results emphasize the importance of a strong commitment to an interbank rate as an operational target and suggest that the central bank could reduce uncertainty in short-term yields significantly by smoothing out the overnight interest rates around the policy rate.