This IMF Staff Report highlights that the robust economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire is projected to continue in 2018. The inflation remains subdued. The program aims to achieve a sustainable balance of payments position, foster inclusive growth and poverty reduction, and create fiscal space for investing in priority infrastructure and social projects. Strong economic performance since 2012, with average annual growth of 9 percent, reflected the economic recovery following political normalization, improved business environment, strong program of reforms, and supportive fiscal policy. A key policy challenge is to sustain robust growth and make it more inclusive and private sector-driven. Robust medium-term growth is expected to be supported by domestic demand.
This paper discusses Ghana’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility arrangement and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), and Modifications of PCs. Program implementation in Ghana remains broadly satisfactory, but the economic outlook remains difficult and fiscal challenges are mounting. The growth outlook for 2016 and 2017 has weakened, mainly owing to disruptions in oil production, and non-oil economic activity is expected to remain subdued owing to continued fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy. There was broad agreement with the authorities on the need to sustain a tight monetary stance given the still high inflation. The IMF staff recommends completion of the third review.
This paper discusses Ghana’s First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waiver and Modifications of Performance Criteria (PC). Program performance has been broadly satisfactory. All but one PC were met at end-April 2015 and structural benchmarks were largely completed, some with delays. However, there was nonobservance of the continuous PC on the ceiling on gross credit to government by Bank of Ghana in April by a small margin and the indicative targets on inflation and social protection spending were missed, the latter because of a very slight delay in some spending. The economic environment remains challenging and risks are tilted to the downside. The IMF staff recommends completion of the first review.
This Selected Issues paper presents an analysis of change in Zambia’s mining fiscal regime. Foreign investment has revived Zambia’s mining sector. However, its mining sector’s direct contribution to government revenues has been low. Reflecting persistent concerns about the low contribution of the mining sector to budget revenues, the government has amended the fiscal regime many times over the last seven years. The 2015 budget introduced major changes to the mining fiscal regime. The authorities estimate that the change would boost budget revenues from the mining sector by about 1 percent of GDP, based on an assumption that the change would have no adverse impact on production.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. The emergence of large fiscal and external imbalances in recent years, which led to a slowdown in growth, is putting Ghana’s medium-term prospects at risk. The Government’s efforts to achieve fiscal consolidation since mid-2013 have been undermined by policy slippages, external shocks and rising interest cost. Until mid- 2014, the net international reserves position had further weakened and the exchange rate depreciated sharply, fueling inflationary pressures. The situation has stabilized on the back of the Eurobond issued in September and a short-term loan contracted by the Cocoa Board, but public debt continued to rise at an unsustainable pace. Extended Credit Facility Arrangement (ECF). The Ghanaian authorities have requested a three-year arrangement under the ECF in an amount of SDR 664.20 million (180 percent of quota) in support of their medium-term economic reform program. Program Framework. The authorities’ three year ECF-supported program, anchored on their second Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda (GSGDA II), aims at a sizeable and frontloaded fiscal adjustment to restore debt sustainability, rebuild external buffers, and eliminate fiscal dominance of monetary policy, while safeguarding financial sector stability. It focuses on: ? Substantially strengthening the fiscal position by mobilizing additional revenues, restraining the wage bill and other primary spending, while making space for priority spending. The government is also taking additional adjustment measures to help offset lower-than-budgeted oil revenue. A prudent borrowing policy will complement fiscal consolidation efforts to restore debt sustainability. ? Accelerating the reform agenda: strengthening public financial management and expenditure controls, in particular cleaning-up the payroll and enhancing wage bill control; improving revenue collection through tax policy and tax administration reforms; restoring the effectiveness of the inflation-targeting (IT) framework by eliminating fiscal dominance and enhancing monetary policy operations. Risks. Risks to the program include delayed or partial implementation of policies, including next year in the run-up to elections, a slower growth recovery if the electricity crisis is not addressed quickly, and additional negative commodity price shocks. Staff supports the authorities’ request for IMF support. Forceful and sustained implementation of the program will be essential to address macroeconomic imbalances.
Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne and Mr. Mumtaz Hussain
La réforme des subventions énergétiques est un problème important et difficile pour les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne. Un nombre relativement important d’études théoriques et empiriques ont été consacrées à cette question. Si ce rapport s’inspire de ces études, il examine toutefois plus précisément la situation des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne de manière à répondre aux questions suivantes: pourquoi est-il important de réduire les subventions énergétiques? Quelles sont les difficultés que pose la réforme des subventions énergétiques? Quel est le meilleur moyen de procéder à une telle réforme? Ce rapport se fonde sur diverses sources d’information sur les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne et notamment des évaluations quantitatives, des enquêtes et des études de cas particulières (mais standardisées).