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Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi, William Gbohoui, and Mr. Waikei R Lam
This technical note assesses how large shocks from natural disasters are key source of vulnerabilities for public finances. It extends the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department calibration toolkit by developing a methodology to calibrate fiscal rules in the event of natural disaster shocks and the possibility of implementing climate adaptation and mitigation measures. The features incorporated in this technical note would allow the calibration of a prudent medium-term fiscal anchor as well as annual budgetary limits that ensure the sustainability of public finances. The note is accompanied by a set of toolkits that provides instructions on calibrating a medium-term debt anchor and corresponding operational rules in the presence of natural disaster risks, accounting for climate investment and other mitigation mechanisms.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation analyses that the Grenada’ tourism-dependent economy continued to recover from the pandemic amidst rising energy and food prices. Growth is estimated to have reached 6.4 percent in 2022, driven by a tourism rebound and construction activity. Inflation rose moderately to 2.9 percent by end-2022, as the authorities’ policy response dampened the pass through from rising global food and fuel prices. Public debt is now back on a downward trend. The financial sector is well capitalized and liquid although nonperforming loans (NPLs) of credit unions have risen. The government is committed to a return to the fiscal rules in 2023, after triggering the escape clause in 2020–22 to address the fallout of the pandemic. It planned to amend the Fiscal Responsibility Law this year to best support the country’s sustainable development. The government is seeking international support to facilitate the implementation of its Disaster Resilience Strategy and a transition toward renewable energy, critical for enhancing resilience to natural disasters and economic competitiveness.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews anecdotal evidence on labor market conditions and discusses policy options to strengthen the labor market and support growth in St. Kitts and Nevis. The diagnosis of labor market conditions reveals challenges and opportunities in wages, productivity, and labor allocation across sectors. These include strengthening jobs and growth opportunities across sectors, enhancing the wage setting system to support competitiveness, and increasing the efficiency of the public sector. Strong institutions are needed to effectively manage public sector wages over the medium term. Several institutional arrangements can facilitate this goal including regular comparison between public and private sector wages, regular wage negotiations as opposed to ad hoc adjustments, and using medium-term wage bill forecasting to support better fiscal outcomes. Labor market and growth policies could play a key role in strengthening jobs and growth in the post-coronavirus disease era, including by leveraging sectoral linkages to provide more diversified and higher quality job opportunities, enhancing labor market policies, and increasing the efficiency of the public sector.