This paper discusses key findings of the Third Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for Haiti. Despite external shocks, program performance was solid in the first half of FY2008, with all but one quantitative performance criteria (PC) met. Most structural conditionality was also met on time, although two PCs require waivers. The authorities’ revised program through end-September is based on a policy response that balances adjustment and financing, and safeguards macroeconomic stability. IMF staff supports the authorities’ response to the shocks.
The macroeconomic goals of the first program year were largely met, although growth accelerated somewhat less than expected. Objectives for the second program year (FY2008) are to create conditions for higher growth and consolidate stabilization gains achieved so far. Monetary policy will focus on quantity management, with a market-determined policy interest rate. The authorities plan to further strengthen their monetary policy framework. Macroeconomic policies contained in the program are consistent with the central objective to boost growth while maintaining economic stability.
Based on Haiti’s overall satisfactory track record and the strength of the program, IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a new three-year arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). The authorities’ demonstrated political commitment and high degree of ownership will be critical to secure durable success of Haiti’s economic reform strategy. Haiti’s requirements are expected to remain substantial, but the already identified assistance appears adequate to close the gap over the first year of the program. The strategy should include an independent assessment of the financial condition.
This 2001 Article IV Consultation highlights that Haiti’s performance under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) during FY2000/01 was weak. Real GDP is estimated to have declined by about 2 percent, reflecting tight monetary conditions and the negative expectations raised by the continuing high fiscal imbalance and central bank financing; inflation remained broadly unchanged at about 16 percent during most of the year. Tight monetary conditions and crowding out by the public sector combined with the weak economy and continuing political uncertainty all contributed to a sharp decline in credit to the private sector.
This paper reviews economic developments in Haiti during 1990–94. In the public finances, the current account of the nonfinancial public sector (before grants) shifted from balance in 1991 to a deficit of 3.8 percent of GDP in 1994. With the lack of foreign financing, capital investment fell to low levels over the period, and the overall deficit (before grants) declined from 4.5 percent of GDP to 4.2 percent of GDP; the deficit was financed mainly by recourse to central bank credit and the accumulation of arrears.