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Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö, Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, Natalia Kuosmanen, and Mika Pajarinen
Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö, Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, Natalia Kuosmanen, and Mika Pajarinen
Do workers hired from superstar tech-firms contribute to better firm performance? To address this question, we analyze the effects of tacit knowledge spillovers from Nokia in the context of a quasi-natural experiment in Finland, the closure of Nokia’s mobile device division in 2014 and the massive labor movement it implied. We apply a two-stage difference-in-differences approach with heterogeneous treatment to estimate the causal effects of hiring former Nokia employees. Our results provide new evidence supporting the positive causal role of former Nokia workers on firm performance. The evidence of the positive spillovers on firms is particularly strong in terms of employment and value added.
Pavol Jurca, Ján Klacso, Eugen Tereanu, Marco Forletta, and Mr. Marco Gross
We develop a semi-structural quantitative framework that combines micro and macroeconomic data to assess the effectiveness of combinations of borrower-based macroprudential measures in Slovakia. We expand on the integrated dynamic household balance sheet model of Gross and Población (2017) by introducing an endogenous loan granting feature, in turn to quantify the potential (ex-ante) impact of macroprudential measures on resilience parameters, compared with a counterfactual no-policy scenario, under adverse macroeconomic conditions. We conclude that (1) borrower-based measures can noticeably improve household and bank resilience to macroeconomic downturns, in particular when multiple measures are applied; (2) those measures tend to complement each other, as the impact of individual instruments is transmitted via different channels; and (3) the resilience benefits are more sizeable if the measures effectively limit the accumulation of risks before an economic downturn occurs, suggesting that an early, preemptive implementation of borrower-based measures is indeed warranted.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper summarizes Nordea’s operations and business model; the macroeconomic and prudential implications of the move; and policy responses taken so far. The IMF staff’s assessment is that banking supervision in the euro area has improved significantly following the creation of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, which should mitigate potential risks from Nordea’s move; meanwhile, the Nordic authorities have done much, in conjunction with the European Central Bank, to ensure that potential gaps and fragmentation across national jurisdictions are avoided. The resolution framework is designed to prevent taxpayers having to bail out banks, but is new, and work on building the crisis preparedness of euro area banks is still under way. The banking union is not yet complete, details of the backstop for the Single Resolution Fund need to be finalized and a common euro area deposit insurance should be made fully operational. At the same time, Nordea is also operating in non-euro area member states—maintaining cooperation between euro area and noneuro area institutions remains important.
Iacovos Ioannou
Lithuania’s current credit cycle highlights the strong link between housing prices and credit. We explore this relationship in more detail by analyzing the main features of credit, housing price, and output cycles in Baltic and Nordic countries during1995-2017. We find a high degree of synchronization between Lithuania’s credit and housing price cycles. Panel regressions show a strong correlation between a credit upturn and housing price upturn. Moreover, panel VAR suggests that shocks in housing prices, credit, and output within and outside Lithuania strongly impact Lithuania’s credit.
Mr. Christian H Ebeke and Kodjovi M. Eklou
This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations in Europe. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (the granular shocks) in explaining aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper also assesses the strength of spillovers from large firms onto SMEs. Using firm-level data covering over 14 million firms and eight european countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain), we find that: (i) 40 percent of the variance in GDP in the sample can be explained by idiosyncratic shocks at large firms; (ii) positive granular shocks at large firms spill over to domestic SMEs’ output, especially if SMEs’ balance sheets are healthy and if SMEs belong to the services and manufacturing sectors.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for Finland in the area of banking supervision. The regulatory and supervisory framework for liquidity and funding risk has improved since the last FSAP, but certain vulnerabilities persist and require greater attention. Finnish banks continue to rely extensively on wholesale funding, as noted in the 2010 FSAP. Although supervisory action has managed to mitigate the problem, many banks remain heavily exposed to the risk of a dry-up of unsecured wholesale funding. Also, banks hold covered bonds issued by other banks as part of their liquidity buffer.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Finland in the area of contingency planning and crisis management (CPCM). Finland’s CPCM framework rests on a strong foundation. In addition to the new European Union framework, Finland can build on a cooperative culture among its financial oversight agencies, which can help in times of crisis. Furthermore, the Finnish financial oversight architecture ensures the functional separation of potentially conflicting CPCM responsibilities: supervision, resolution, and emergency liquidity support. The clear separation of functions also helps crisis preparedness. Moreover, Finland also has a strong tradition of testing systemwide operational risks.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Finland in the area of macroprudential policy framework. The Finnish authorities regularly coordinate and collaborate with international bodies on macroprudential policy. Several macroprudential instruments were formally introduced in the legislation and activated recently. The 2014 Act on Credit Institutions implements macroprudential instruments, including those set out in the European Capital Requirement Directive. Despite the important progress made, there are some improvements that should be considered. The macroprudential policy toolkit should be expanded. The systemic risk buffer should be added to the toolkit, although its activation and level may still need further analysis.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note discusses the results of stress testing of Finland’s banking system. Despite high capitalization levels, there are important vulnerabilities in the Finnish banking system. Near-term risks are largely tilted to the downside, stemming from both external and domestic sources. A sharper-than-expected global growth slowdown would be a drag on Finland’s export and GDP growth. Although so far high compared with the rest of the euro area banks, Finnish banks’ profitability is facing challenges from the low interest rate environment and the low economic growth. Vulnerabilities include funding risks, contagion risks, and challenges related to long-term profitability.