This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Norway is in the midst of a healthy recovery from the oil downturn, supported by positive trends in oil prices and a strengthening labor market. In addition, banks remain profitable and well capitalized. However, household debt continues to increase and house prices have resumed their rise, especially in the Oslo area, after a correction during 2017. Mainland growth is projected to increase from 2 percent in 2017 to 2.5 percent in each 2018 and 2019, underpinned by solid consumption, stronger business investment and an export recovery. Petroleum investment will also pick up. As a result, output will likely start to exceed potential in 2019.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Norway’s economy that has a maturing oil and gas industry. Norway’s half century of good fortune from its oil and gas wealth may have peaked. Oil and gas production will continue for many decades on current projections, but output and investment have flattened out, and the spillovers from the offshore oil and gas production to the mainland economy may have turned from positive to negative. Thus far, economic policy has needed to focus on managing the windfall, and Norway’s institutions have been a model for other countries. Going forward, the challenges are expected to become more complex.
This Selected Issues paper of Norway presents a cyclical indicator of fiscal policy at the general government level, and provides an updated assessment of the long-term fiscal position based on the future profile of the State Petroleum Fund (SPF). The study focuses on structural changes needed and prospects for privatization of state assets in the telecommunications and petroleum sectors. The paper analyzes the key issues in the Norwegian financial sector, outlines recent financial developments and banking soundness indicators, and also assesses the financial policy framework.
This Background Paper examines the medium-term economic outlook (1997–99) for Norway. The central feature of Norges Bank’s reference case projection for the medium term is that the expansion of mainland output will slow from 3.3 percent in 1995 and 2.8 percent in 1996 to an annual average of 2 percent in 1997–99. Overall GDP growth will also slow from about 4 percent in each of 1995 and 1996 to 2 percent in 1997–99. Inflation is forecast to remain low, at 2 percent in 1996 and on average 2.3 percent per year in 1997–99.
This paper reviews economic developments in Norway during the 1990s, with an emphasis on developments in 1993 and 1994. The paper covers developments in the real economy, in the public finances, and in the monetary and exchange rate area. The private consumption in Norway remained weak through the first half of 1993 but picked up sharply during the second half of the year, as declining interest rates and rising housing prices boosted consumer confidence. Seasonally adjusted, private consumption rose by 3.5 percent between the first and second halves of 1993.