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Mr. Christian H Ebeke and Kodjovi M. Eklou
This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations in Europe. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (the granular shocks) in explaining aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper also assesses the strength of spillovers from large firms onto SMEs. Using firm-level data covering over 14 million firms and eight european countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain), we find that: (i) 40 percent of the variance in GDP in the sample can be explained by idiosyncratic shocks at large firms; (ii) positive granular shocks at large firms spill over to domestic SMEs’ output, especially if SMEs’ balance sheets are healthy and if SMEs belong to the services and manufacturing sectors.
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, João Tovar Jalles, Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, and Michela Schena
This paper analyses the causes and consequences of fiscal consolidation promise gaps, defined as the distance between planned fiscal adjustments and actual consolidations. Using 74 consolidation episodes derived from the narrative approach in 17 advanced economies during 1978 – 2015, the paper shows that promise gaps were sizeable (about 0.3 percent of GDP per year, or 1.1 percent of GDP during an average fiscal adjustment episode). Both economic and political factors explain the gaps: for example, greater electoral proximity, stronger political cohesion and higher accountability were all associated with smaller promise gaps. Finally, governments which delivered on their fiscal consolidation plans were rewarded by financial markets and not penalized by voters.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report has been compiled against a backdrop of political uncertainty and heightened security concerns. Public financial management (PFM) reforms may not be to the forefront of government priorities at present but severe budgetary pressures need to be addressed and measures adopted to help implement sustainable fiscal policy. The report focuses on immediate PFM reforms needs that help alleviate immediate budget pressures, and also identifies medium-term reforms to address long-standing weaknesses in PFM systems.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report has been compiled against a backdrop of political uncertainty and heightened security concerns. Public financial management (PFM) reforms may not be to the forefront of government priorities at present but severe budgetary pressures need to be addressed and measures adopted to help implement sustainable fiscal policy. The report focuses on immediate PFM reforms needs that help alleviate immediate budget pressures, and also identifies medium-term reforms to address long-standing weaknesses in PFM systems.
Mr. Richard I Allen, Yasemin Hurcan, Peter Murphy, Mr. Maximilien Queyranne, and Mr. Sami Yläoutinen
There is relatively little literature that analyses the role, functions, and organization of finance ministries. The purpose of this working paper is to review international experiences in this area, in an effort to formulate guiding principles of organizational design and the allocation of functions, while recognizing the crucial importance of each country’s history and institutional context. Over the past 30 years many finance ministries have moved from a “traditional” to an “emerging” model of organizational design in which there is greater openness and transparency, more flexible management practices, and a broader focus on strategic policy issues. In addition, many operational functions have been devolved to arm’s–length agencies or line ministries. The paper describes the challenges facing developing countries in strengthening their finance ministries, and the principles, approaches, and strategies that can be applied.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper discusses key findings of fiscal transparency evaluation for Finland. It highlights that Finland meets most of the principles of the Fiscal Transparency Code at good or advanced level. Some areas, notably related to the analysis and management of fiscal risks, are still rated as basic or below, but with a few exceptions the importance of these areas for fiscal management in Finland is relatively low. Overall, the Finnish authorities produce an impressive amount of data and information related to all three pillars of the Code. It is also highlighted that fiscal reporting in Finland is transparent and meets good or advanced practice in all areas.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

This 2013 Article IV Consultation examines the performance of Sweden’s fiscal policies to counter effects of global financial crisis. Economic growth in Sweden has been moderate since global financial crisis of 2008–2009. The IMF report posits that with potential growth moderately weaker and the natural rate of unemployment to remain elevated, policies should focus on growth-enhancing reforms, especially in the labor market. It suggests that good policies that secure the soundness of Swedish international banking groups are expected to benefit borrowers not only in Sweden but across the region.

Mr. Ian Lienert
Esta nota1 trata las siguientes cuestiones principales: • ¿En qué momento del ciclo presupuestario debería participar el parlamento? • ¿Qué aspectos aprueba normalmente el parlamento, a diferencia de los aspectos que revisa? • ¿Con qué estructura interna y apoyo debería contar el parlamento para examinar los proyectos de presupuesto preparados por el gobierno y el presupuesto aprobado? • ¿Qué requisitos legales y de rendición de cuentas debería imponer el parlamento al poder ejecutivo? • ¿De qué manera debería formalizarse la participación de la legislatura en los procesos presupuestarios en las leyes y reglamentaciones?
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues and Analytical Note on Finland discusses the potential spillovers to Finland from various shocks associated with cross-country interlinkages. The note provides an overview of the trade and financial linkages, assesses the impact of global fiscal consolidation on Finland via trade links, quantifies dynamic contributions from external sources to growth, and uses these contributions to forecast the potential loss to Finnish GDP from a growth slowdown in other European countries; and analyzes the potential impact from the banking sector or sovereign stress.
Mr. Ian Lienert
This paper examines the role of the legislature in budget processes. The paper highlights that for promoting good governance and fiscal transparency, the legislature’s active engagement in the budget process is essential. When fiscal policies and medium-term budgetary objectives are debated in parliament, budget strategies and policies are “owned” more widely. However, more active participation by the legislature runs the risk that fiscal discipline deteriorates. In countries where the legislature has unrestrained budget amendment authority, parliament is prone to introduce changes that increase spending or reduce taxes.