This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that in 2013, Estonia’s recovery from the crisis continued but at a slower pace. Real GDP growth was 0.8 percent, with private consumption providing the main support, although net exports made a negative contribution. Inflation declined to about 3½ percent, but stayed above the euro average. Public finances remained strong, with a fiscal deficit of 0.2 percent of GDP and a gross public debt of 10 percent of GDP. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2014, rising toward expected potential growth of 3 to 3.5 percent in the medium term.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Iceland’s economy is on a path to recovery, but legacy vulnerabilities are weighing on growth. GDP growth—which reached 2.9 percent in 2011—slowed to 1.6 percent in 2012 amid private sector deleveraging and weak external demand. Unemployment has continued to decline however, standing at 5.1 percent in May, down from a peak of 9.2 percent in September 2010. Inflation has come down to 3.3 percent in June from a peak of 18.6 in January 2009, but remains above the central bank’s target of 2½ percent. The outlook is for modest growth, declining inflation, and improving fiscal and external position.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes whether cyclical factors, including the large real exchange rate appreciation in recent years in New Zealand, can account for the rapidity of the recent rise in import penetration, or whether more lasting structural changes, such as the effects of globalization, may have played a role. The paper also looks at New Zealand’s vulnerabilities from two angles. It evaluates the external position of the country, and then assesses the health and soundness of various sectors of the economy by looking at their balance sheets and the key vulnerability indicators.
The paper discusses a model in which growth is a negative function of fiscal burden. Moreover, growth discontinuously switches from high to low as the fiscal burden reaches a critical level. The paper provides an overview of key elements of corporate bankruptcy codes and practice around the world that are relevant to the debate on sovereign debt restructuring. It also describes the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries and explains the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
This report describes the monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area and the euro area stability programs. The Stability and Growth Pact presents annual stability programs (SPs), which outlines the medium-term fiscal objectives. The paper provides a preliminary review of the SPs, assesses the previous fiscal developments, and analyzes the medium-term prospects implied by the new SPs. The study describes the revised stability program and also the past and prospective fiscal adjustment in the euro area as a whole and at the disaggregated level.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
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This book is intended to provide the user of debt statistics with a comparative description fo the statistics collected by the Bank for International Settlements, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the World Bank. It discusses how these statistics are gathered, why they take the form they do, and how they relate to each other.
The first consideration in formulating a definition of countries’ external debt is that it should respect the requirements of a wide range of users. Major users include: banks and export credit guarantee agencies for their work on risk analysis; officials involved in international financial co-operation, especially those concerned with the negotiation of debt agreements; and economic analysts in general. These and other potential users must find statistics derived from the definition relevant and realistic.
The core definition represents an agreed view of the essential elements in the definition of external debt. Especially in the case of systems focusing on a particular sector, it provides criteria for the inclusion or exclusion of various types of financial instrument. It also provides a yardstick facilitating comparison of the practices of individual organisations.