Debates surrounding the adoption of a common currency have focused on its benefits weighed against the long-term costs of losing monetary independence. These debates have assumed that the penalty for not adopting a common currency is the maintenance of the status quo. This paper uses the Sjaastad model to analyze the price-making power of major currencies with regard to the prices of traded goods in small countries that have not adopted the euro and uses the Bayoumi-Eichengreen OCA index methodology to shed further light on changes in Europe. The empirical evidence suggests that small countries that have not adopted the euro have increasingly seen a change in the determinants of their traded goods prices. This seems to contrast with the experience of small countries that adopted the euro. The results need to be interpreted carefully, given the short time series.
This paper examines the impact of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on trade within the euro area. Using panel data for 22 industrial countries, the analysis estimates the effect of the euro's arrival on area-wide trade compared to bilateral trade flows between other industrial countries. Controlling for other influences according to the "gravity" model of trade, the panel analysis employs cointegration techniques to obtain reliable point estimates of EMU trade effects. Cross-country differences with respect to EMU trade gains and underlying factors accounting for these differences are also further explored.
This Background Paper examines the medium-term economic outlook (1997–99) for Norway. The central feature of Norges Bank’s reference case projection for the medium term is that the expansion of mainland output will slow from 3.3 percent in 1995 and 2.8 percent in 1996 to an annual average of 2 percent in 1997–99. Overall GDP growth will also slow from about 4 percent in each of 1995 and 1996 to 2 percent in 1997–99. Inflation is forecast to remain low, at 2 percent in 1996 and on average 2.3 percent per year in 1997–99.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper discusses the study on development planning conducted by a small group within the World Bank. The study reveals that most countries not only encounter the same planning problems, they make the same mistakes. The paper highlights that although most countries with development plans have not succeeded in carrying them out, some countries without national development plans or national planning agencies have been developing rapidly. The paper also highlights that the lack of government support is the prime reason why so few development plans are carried out.