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Vito Amendolagine, Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, Roberta Rabellotti, Marco Sanfilippo, and Adnan Seric
The local sourcing of intermediate products is one the main channels for foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers. This paper investigates whether and how participation and positioning in the global value chains (GVCs) of host countries is associated to local sourcing by foreign investors. Matching two firm-level data sets of 19 Sub-Saharan African countries and Vietnam to country-sector level measures of GVC involvement, we find that more intense GVC participation and upstream specialization are associated to a higher share of inputs sourced locally by foreign investors. These effects are larger in countries with stronger rule of law and better education.
Mr. Antonio David, Carlos van Hombeeck, and Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
Using a newly developed dataset this paper examines the cyclicality of private capital inflows to low-income developing countries (LIDCs) over the period 1990-2012. The empirical analysis shows that capital inflows to LIDCs are procyclical, yet considerably less procyclical than flows to more advanced economies. The analysis also suggests that flows to LIDCs are more persistent than flows to emerging markets (EMs). There is also evidence that changes in risk aversion are a significant correlate of private capital inflows with the expected sign, but LIDCs seem to be less sensitive to changes in global risk aversion than EMs. A host of robustness checks to alternative estimation methods, samples, and control variables confirm the baseline results. In terms of policy implications, these findings suggest that private capital inflows are likely to become more procyclical as LIDCs move along the development path, which could in turn raise several associated policy challenges, not the least concerning the reform of traditional monetary policy frameworks.
Mr. Kevin Fletcher, Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Duncan P Last, Mr. Gerd Schwartz, Mr. Shamsuddin Tareq, Mr. Richard I Allen, and Ms. Isabell Adenauer

Abstract

The international community has committed to scaling up aid and improving aid delivery to low-income countries to help them meet the Millennium Development Goals. Other "emerging" donors, public and private, are increasing their assistance, and debt-relief initiatives are creating space for new borrowing. Remittances to low-income countries have been on a precipitous rise, and many countries are benefiting from high commodity prices. Fiscal Management of Scaled-Up Aid explores approaches to the sound fiscal management that will be required to ensure effective and sustainable use of these flows. With a medium-term perspective and efficient use of resources in mind, this paper addresses questions that shape fiscal policy response to scaled-up aid. Drawing on IMF Fiscal Affairs Department technical assistance to member countries, it outlines factors that should be taken into account in preparing an action plan for public financial management reform and proposes specific measures that will assist countries in strengthening fiscal institutions.

Mr. Joannes Mongardini and Mr. Alexander Chudik
This paper presents a methodology to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER) for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using both single-country and panel estimation techniques. The limited data set hinders single-country estimation for most countries in the sample, but panel estimates are statistically and economically significant, and generally robust to different estimation techniques. The results replicate well the historical experience for a number of countries in the sample. Panel techniques can also be used to derive out of sample estimates for countries with a more limited data set.
Mr. Xavier Debrun, Mr. Peter S. Heller, Mr. Theo Thomas, Mr. Menachem Katz, Ms. Isabell Adenauer, and Miss Taline Koranchelian
Debt relief and the scaling up of aid to low-income countries should allow for greater fiscal space for expenditure programs to create long-term growth and lower poverty rates. But designing a suitable medium-term fiscal framework that fosters a sustainable delivery of better public services and infrastructure while maintaining a credible commitment to fiscal prudence confronts many challenges. This paper discusses what low-income countries can do to shape fiscal policy frameworks that are ambitious in trying to absorb additional aid while still ensuring longer-term sustainability for government expenditure programs and finances. It suggests what approaches can be used to manage the greater fiscal policy risks associated with a scaled-up aid environment, including coordination with monetary policy. The paper also discusses what institutional changes are needed if donors and countries are to facilitate the implementation of a higher level of aid-financed spending programs.
Yongzheng Yang, Mr. Robert Powell, and Mr. Sanjeev Gupta

Abstract

Au cours des dix prochaines années, les pays africains seront les principaux bénéficiaires de l'augmentation de l'aide extérieure, qui vise à les aider à atteindre les objectifs du millénaire pour le développement. Ce manuel vise à aider ces pays à évaluer les effets macroéconomiques de l'expansion de l'aide et à surmonter les défis qu'ils impliquent. Il se veut une référence pour les responsables, les économistes praticiens sur le terrain et le personnel des institutions financières internationales et des organismes donateurs qui participent à l'élaboration de stratégies à moyen terme pour les pays africains, notamment dans le contexte des documents de stratégie pour la réduction de la pauvreté. Le manuel présente cinq directives principales pour l'élaboration de scénarios d'expansion visant à aider les pays à déterminer les questions politiques importantes pour une gestion efficace de l'augmentation des flux d'aide : comment absorber autant d'aide extérieure que possible, comment augmenter la croissance à court et à moyen terme, comment promouvoir la bonne gouvernance et réduire la corruption, comment préparer une stratégie de sortie pour faire face à une diminution de l'aide, et comment réévaluer régulièrement le dosage de mesures.

Boriana Yontcheva, Mr. Peter Isard, Mr. Leslie Lipschitz, and Mr. Alex Mourmouras

Abstract

Relatively slow progress toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by their 2015 target date has added urgency to the challenge of reducing global poverty. The authors of this new book--who include scholars from the IMF, World Bank, Oxford University, and the Center for Global Development--argue that the MDGs cannot be achieved without a substantial scaling up of foreign aid. They show how such increased aid flows must be managed effectively to ensure the greatest benefit. And they offer analysis and insight on a variety of macroeconomic policy implications that both donors and recipients should consider.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
Yongzheng Yang, Mr. Robert Powell, and Mr. Sanjeev Gupta

Abstract

Over the next decade, African countries are expected to be the largest beneficiaries of increased donor aid, which is intended to improve their prospects for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. This handbook will help these countries assess the macroeconomic implications of increased aid and respond to the associated policy challenges. The handbook is directed at policymakers, practicing economists in African countries, and the staffs of international financial institutions and donor agencies who participate in preparing medium-term strategies for African countries, including in the context of poverty reduction strategy papers. It provides five main guidelines for developing scaling-up scenarios to help countries identify important policy issues involved in using higher aid flows effectively: to absorb as much aid as possible, to boost growth in the short to medium term, to promote good governance and reduce corruption, to prepare an exit strategy should aid levels decrease, and to regularly reassess the policy mix.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Para estar al corriente del pensamiento actual sobre el sistema financiero internacional, la política monetaria, el desarrollo económico, la reducción de la pobreza y otros temas cruciales, suscríbase a Finanzas y Desarrollo. Esta amena revista trimestral ofrece análisis profundos del personal técnico del FMI y destacados expertos internacionales sobre estas y otras cuestiones. Los artículos están dirigidos a un público no especializado que desea comprender mejor el funcionamiento de la economía mundial y las políticas y actividades del FMI.