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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Much of the work of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) was conducted prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the FSAP’s focus on medium-term challenges and vulnerabilities, however, many of its findings and recommendations for strengthening policy and institutional frameworks remain pertinent. This report reflects key developments and policy changes since the FSAP mission work was completed, and includes illustrative scenarios to quantify the possible implications of the COVID-19 shock on the solvency of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs). Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Danish authorities had taken important steps to improve financial system resilience. The authorities had actively used macroprudential tools to bolster the robustness of the financial system. The supervision of the banking and insurance sectors had improved. Likewise, recent legislation has strengthened anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) supervision. Major reforms such as a new bank resolution framework had also considerably improved Denmark’s financial safety net and crisis management frameworks.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Danish authorities’ efforts to strengthen cross-border anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) supervision continue to gather momentum. Since the Fund’s publication of a Selected Issues Paper on this subject in June 20192, the Danish authorities have made significant progress, including by conducting or participating in three multinational on-site inspections of banks; developing a new institutional risk assessment model; issuing an AML/CFT on-site inspection manual; and, via Act No. 1563 (2019), amending several pieces of legislation so as to bolster the monitoring and enforcement powers of the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority (DFSA), establish additional reporting requirements for the private sector, and stiffen the penalties for violations of AML/CFT obligations.
Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia, Ms. Srobona Mitra, Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, Luiza Antoun de Almeida, Cristina Cuervo, Mr. Andre O Santos, and Tryggvi Gudmundsson
This note weighs the merits of a capital market union (CMU) for Europe, identifies major obstacles in its path, and recommends a set of carefully targeted policy actions. European capital markets are relatively small, resulting in strong bank-dependence, and are split sharply along national lines. Results include an uneven playing field in terms of corporate funding costs, the rationing out of collateral-constrained firms, and limited shock absorption. The benefits of integration center on expanding financial choice, ultimately to support capital formation and resilience. Capital market development and integration would support a healthy diversity in European finance. Proceeding methodically, the note identifies three key barriers to greater capital market integration in Europe: transparency, regulatory quality, and insolvency practices. Based on these findings, the note urges three policy priorities, focused on the three barriers. There is no roadblock—such steps should prove feasible without a new grand bargain.
Signe Krogstrup and Cédric Tille
The literature on the drivers of capital flows stresses the prominent role of global financial factors. Recent empirical work, however, highlights how this role varies across countries and time, and this heterogeneity is not well understood. We revisit this question by focusing on financial intermediaries’ funding flows in different currencies. A concise portfolio model shows that the sign and magnitude of the response of foreign currency funding flows to global risk factors depend on the financial intermediary’s pre-existing currency exposure. An analysis of a rich dataset of European banks’ aggregate balance sheets lends support to the model predictions, especially in countries outside the euro area.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Serbian economy is facing serious challenges. GDP contracted by an estimated 2 percent in 2014 on account of continued falling domestic demand aggravated by floods, and weak economic activity in trading partners. This, together with the low imported inflation, pushed Serbia’s inflation rate below the National Bank of Serbia’s inflation tolerance band, allowing some easing of monetary policy. To support their economic policies over 2015–17, the authorities have requested the IMF’s assistance. The program aims to restore public debt sustainability, strengthen competitiveness and growth, and boost financial sector resilience.
Mr. Audun Groenn and Ms. Maria Wallin Fredholm
The aim of this empirical study is to describe and provide analysis on the experience of managing capital flows in Iceland and the Baltic countries. During the build-up of the crisis, there were shortcomings in macroeconomic policies and in the policy mix, as well as in financial supervision in the countries covered. While the use of traditional macroeconomic and structural policies was far from exhausted, recognizing that there are no substitutes for sound macroeconomic policies, with an IMF framework on capital flows in place prior to the crisis, it might have been easier for the IMF and national policymakers to identify accelerating problems at an early stage and address them with targeted measures.