Camila Casas, Mr. Federico J Diez, Ms. Gita Gopinath, and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
In response to the dearth of information on trade finance, the Fund has undertaken a survey of major advanced country and emerging market banks. The results suggest that the cost of trade finance is rising globally, but that provision is falling in emerging markets while staying stable in advanced countries, possibly reflecting structural differences in markets.
The paper finds that simple econometric specifications yield surprising rich and complex dynamics -- relative prices respond to the nominal exchange rate and pass-through effects, import and export volumes respond to relative price changes, and the trade balance responds to changes in import and export values.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes economic performance of Ecuador under dollarization. The paper reviews the principal trade-offs normally associated with official dollarization, and their specific relevance to Ecuador. It discusses Ecuador’s performance under the dollarization regime, highlighting the country’s main achievements and challenges in the macroeconomic and structural areas. The paper draws some conclusions and discusses what dollarization implies for Ecuador’s reform agenda in the future. The paper also assesses sustainability of Ecuador’s fiscal policy and explores criteria that could guide the setting of fiscal policy in the future.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the developments in the labor market of Peru during the 1990s. The study assesses the relationship between the orientation of economic policy and export performance, in particular, export diversification over the last four decades. The paper describes the two-tier pension system and evaluates the long-term fiscal burden of this system. The study also reviews the design and implementation of monetary policy in Peru over the last decade.
This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
This paper discusses developments and issues concerning export credits from the perspective of the economic adjustment process of indebted developing countries. This emphasis is consistent with the principle that officially supported export credit—whether it takes the form of direct official credits or insurance and guarantees on privately funded credits—is an instrument of commercial financing for exports and not a means of aid finance. All creditor governments have a broad range of objectives in using the economic instruments at their disposal to help overcome the adjustment problems of heavily indebted countries, with which important bilateral trade relations are being maintained. In support of an expansion in world trade and notwithstanding the competitive element, export credit insurance and guarantees may have a special role in helping to catalyze private credit flows, especially since such a role coincides with the interest of private lenders to shift away from general purpose balance of payments finance to trade and project finance.
This paper describes developments in multilateral official debt renegotiations over the 18 months up to the end of June 1986. To facilitate the return to normal market access for countries considered to have made substantial progress in their adjustment efforts, official creditors recently concluded multiyear rescheduling agreements (MYRAs) with both Ecuador and Cote d'Ivoire. Official creditors have also indicated that they were prepared to grant an extended consolidation period for Yugoslavia, although in this case a further meeting would be necessary to agree on the terms for the second stage of the rescheduling. The tendency toward increased differentiation in terms according to the circumstances of the debtor country, already apparent in 1983–1984, has been carried further during the last 18 months. Indeed, the rescheduling agreements concluded during this recent period tend to fall fairly clearly into two very different groups. Official multilateral debt renegotiations deal with the rescheduling of debt service payments on loans extended by, or guaranteed by, the governments or the official agencies of the participating creditor countries.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper reviews the procurement process under World Bank projects. The paper highlights that the World Bank’s interest in procurement under its loans stems directly from the “project” requirement of its Articles, which stipulates that it should lend for specific projects, except in special circumstances, and that it should ensure that the proceeds of the loan are used only for its specified purpose, with due attention to economy and efficiency. In 1951, the World Bank began introducing international competitive bidding as the normal procedure for procurement of the goods and works needed for its projects.
This paper examines the effect transactions with the IMF have on the monetary situation within a country when the foreign exchange purchased from the IMF is used to meet a balance of payments deficit. In some countries, the national currency counterpart is kept on deposit to the credit of the IMF at the central bank. In other countries, the government substitutes a noninterest-bearing note for the national currency counterpart of a transaction with the IMF. It is with the effects of the latter practice that this paper is primarily concerned. The effect of a balance of payments deficit on the money supply will be offset if credit is expanded to finance a government deficit, investment by business, or spending by consumers. The ultimate effect on the money supply will depend upon how the government deals with the national currency turned over to it by the Exchange Equalization Account. Considerable caution is required in concluding that a balance of payments deficit is likely to be moderate and temporary.