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Western Hemisphere > Ecuador

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Economic recovery is ongoing. Real GDP is expected to expand by 2.7 percent in 2022, slightly lower than expected in the last review due to the protests-related disruptions in June and slower growth in trading partners. Inflationary pressures have risen, driven by higher food and transport prices and non-tradeable services, with the headline inflation expected to reach 3.8 percent yoy at end-2022. Tighter financing conditions for all EMs, and an increasingly challenging domestic political environment sharply increased spreads and postponed international market access. The government remains committed to the Fund-supported program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of SDR 4,615 million (661 percent of quota, about $6.5 billion) that was approved by the IMF Executive Board on September 30, 2020. Upon completion of the Sixth and final Review under the EFF-supported program—the first IMF program Ecuador will have completed in more than two decades— an additional SDR 497 million (about $700 million) would be made available.
Keywords:
healthcare obligation; healthcare expenditure; audit result; EFF arrangement; IMF program Ecuador; Energy subsidies; Fiscal stance; Oil; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover Departmental Papers
Regional Spillovers from the Venezuelan Crisis: Migration Flows and Their Impact on Latin America and the Caribbean
Mr. Jorge A Alvarez, Mr. Marco Arena, Alain Brousseau, Mr. Hamid Faruqee, Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo, Mr. Jaime Guajardo, Gerardo Peraza, and Juan Yepez
As a new migration crisis is unfolding in Europe because of the war in Ukraine, the purpose of this paper is to also highlight the ongoing migration crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) due to Venezuela’s economic collapse. The stock of Venezuelan migrants reached 5 million in 2019, most of which had settled in other LAC countries. Following a temporary halt during the pandemic, migration from Venezuela has resumed, with the stock of migrants reaching 6.1 million in 2021. These migration flows are expected to continue in the coming years, which can strain public services and labor markets in the recipient economies in LAC. This Departmental Paper focuses on migration spillovers from the Venezuelan economic and social crisis. It sheds light on how migration can raise GDP growth and affect fiscal and external positions in host countries. It also discusses policy options, including greater support for education and integration into the workforce, which could help migrants find jobs to match their skills and help raise growth prospects in recipient countries.
Keywords:
Migration labor market unemployment spillover effects; Migration flow; migration flow; Venezuela crisis; Migration inflow; Migration spillover; policy action; Venezuelan migrant; Migration; Labor markets; Human capital; Caribbean; Global; South America; Central America