International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) conducted a focused review that primarily assessed banking regulation and supervision of Germany’s less significant institutions (LSIs).1 Germany accounts for 1,324 of about 2,400 total LSIs in the Euro Area (representing 40 percent of Germany’s banking sector assets and approximately 55 per cent of total Euro Area LSI assets). As Germany is part of the Euro Area, the regulation and supervision of banks takes place within the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). The Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and the Deutsche Bundesbank (BBk) are responsible, under the oversight of the ECB, for the supervision of LSIs.
This note explains the value of strategic foresight and provides implementation advice based on the IMF’s experience with scenario planning and policy gaming. Section II provides an overview of strategic foresight and some of its tools. Scenario planning and policy gaming have been the Fund’s main foresight techniques so far, though other tools have been complementary. Accordingly, section III focuses on the scenario planning by illustrating applications before detailing the methods we have been using, while section IV describes policy gaming including the matrix policy gaming approach with which we have experimented so far. Section V summarizes the key points. In so doing, the note extends an invitation to those in the economics and finance fields (e.g., researchers, policymakers) to incorporate strategic foresight in their analysis and decision making.