An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba. The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change.
This paper examines legal provisions and practices of the IMF that involve nonmember states. It considers certain preliminary topics including: categories of nonmembers, subordinate territories for which members are responsible, and ex-members. It then discusses three ways in which nonmembers are affected either because members are limited in their freedom of action in dealing with nonmembers or because nonmembers have consented to certain obligations or standards that parallel those of the Articles. Withholding of certain benefits from nonmembers is also outlined.