The topics discussed in this report are tax regimes for small taxpayers (Chapter II) and the tax treatment of special economic zones (Chapter III). Although these aspects of the tax system have little direct effect on public finances, they affect many people and how those people make decisions or impact the positioning of certain regions relative to the rest of the country. Both are of social and political scope that is disproportionate to their magnitude of tax revenue collection, which is why their design must remain focused in its most strategic sense.
Ms. Mitali Das, Ms. Gita Gopinath, and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries’ (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during 1996–2020 at monthly frequency, we document that countries with preemptive policies in place during the five year window before risk-off shocks experienced relatively lower external finance premia and exchange rate volatility during the shock compared to countries which did not have such preemptive policies in place. We use the episodes of Taper Tantrum and COVID-19 as risk-off shocks. Our identification relies on a difference-in-differences methodology with country fixed effects where preemptive policies are ex-ante by construction and cannot be put in place as a response to the shock ex-post. We control the effects of other policies, such as monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions (FXI), easing of inflow CFMs and tightening of outflow CFMs that are used in response to the risk-off shocks. By reducing the impact of risk-off shocks on countries’ funding costs and exchange rate volatility, preemptive policies enable countries’ continued access to international capital markets during troubled times.
Mr. Luis Brandao Marques, Mr. R. G Gelos, Mr. Thomas Harjes, Ms. Ratna Sahay, and Yi Xue
Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
The publication of liquidity forecasts can be understood as part of central banks’ push toward greater transparency regarding monetary policy implementation. However, the advantages of transparency can only be realized if the information provided is accurate and reliable. This paper (1) provides an overview of the international practice of publishing the forecasts; (2) proposes and implements a framework to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of forecasts using the long history of Eurosystem forecasts as a case study; and (3) analyzes the Eurosystem forecast errors to determine the factors influencing forecast quality. A supporting factor for a high-quality forecast is the contemporaneousness of the information used, whereas money market segmentation can weigh on forecast quality.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept., International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department, International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &, Review Department, and International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper reviews the Fund’s policy on multiple currency practices (MCPs). There remain strong economic and legal reasons to retain a policy on MCPs. The over-arching aim of the review is to make the policy and its application more effective. Based on this review, the paper proposes initial considerations for reforming features of the policy that have created challenges. • Clarifying the concept of “official action” to focus on measures that segment FX markets. • Eliminating potentiality. • Updating the threshold for permissible FX spreads. • Adjusting approval policies. • Reviewing links with capital transactions. • Considering merits of a remedial framework.
Mr. Marcos d Chamon, Mr. David J Hofman, Mr. Nicolas E Magud, and Alejandro M. Werner
Foreign exchange intervention is widely used as a policy tool, particularly in emerging markets, but many facets of this tool remain limited, especially in the context of flexible exchange rate regimes. The Latin American experience can be informative because some of its largest countries adopted floating exchange rate regimes and inflation targeting while continuing to intervene in foreign exchange markets. This edited volume reviews detailed accounts from several Latin American countries’ central banks, and it provides insight into how and with what aim many interventions were decided and implemented. This book documents the effectiveness of intervention and pays special attention to the role of foreign exchange intervention policy within inflation-targeting monetary frameworks. The main lesson from Latin America’s foreign exchange interventions, in the context of inflation targeting, is that the region has had a considerable degree of success. Transparency and a clear communication policy have been key. For economies that are not highly dollarized, rules-based intervention helped contain financial instability and build international reserves while preserving inflation targets. The Latin American experience can help other countries in the design and implementation of their policies.
This papers explores the effects of real exchange rate depreciations on growth across sectors, identifying export, cost, and import-penetration channels. It tests the existence and magnitude of these channels in a panel difference-in-difference methodology. Sectors that export more to begin with, grow relatively more in response to a depreciation. The same is true of sectors where import penetration in final demand is higher. There is no evidence that depreciations reduce growth by making imported inputs more expensive. A 10 percent real depreciation would increase growth of nontraditional sectors in Latin America by 0.6-2 percentage points mostly through the export channel.