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Federico Diaz Kalan, Ms. Adina Popescu, and Julien Reynaud
There is evidence that fiscal rules, in particular well-designed rules, are associated with lower sovereign spreads. However, the impact of noncompliance with fiscal rules on spreads has not been examined in the literature. This paper estimates the effect of the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) on sovereign spreads of European Union member states. Based on a sample including the 28 European Union countries over the period 1999 to 2016, sovereign spreads of countries placed under an EDP are found to be on average higher compared to countries that are not under an EDP. The interpretation of this result is not straight-forward as different channels may be at play, in particular those related with the credibility and the design of the EU fiscal framework. The specification accounts for typical macroeconomic, fiscal, and financial determinants of sovereign spreads, the System Generalized Method of Moments estimator is used to control for endogeneity, and results are robust to a range of checks on variables and estimators.
Mr. Anthony M Annett, Mr. Jörg Decressin, and Mr. Michael Deppler
A rules-based fiscal framework, such as the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), can be an important bulwark against short-sighted policies. Although policies have improved following the SGP’s adoption, shortcomings remain. These, however, are rooted in the policies rather than the rules, where few changes seem necessary. Specifically, the Excessive Deficit Procedure needs a stronger focus on policies rather than outcomes, while staying operationally simple and transparent. Furthermore, reforms are needed to foster time-consistent national policies, budgetary transparency, and ownership of the Pact. Accordingly, parliaments should debate national Stability Programs and national fiscal councils should review these programs for parliaments.
International Monetary Fund
This technical note focuses on recent developments to the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) on Fiscal Transparency and Data Modules for Sweden. The authorities are implementing recommendations of the fiscal ROSC module. The government has decided to reform the state audit organization (RRV) as recommended by the report. Effective 2003, the RRV will be transformed from a government agency to an audit office under parliament, staffed by independent officials. The authorities are also following up on recommendations regarding data-related standards and codes.