Computers

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Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau
We introduce unFEAR, Unsupervised Feature Extraction Clustering, to identify economic crisis regimes. Given labeled crisis and non-crisis episodes and the corresponding features values, unFEAR uses unsupervised representation learning and a novel mode contrastive autoencoder to group episodes into time-invariant non-overlapping clusters, each of which could be identified with a different regime. The likelihood that a country may experience an econmic crisis could be set equal to its cluster crisis frequency. Moreover, unFEAR could serve as a first step towards developing cluster-specific crisis prediction models tailored to each crisis regime.
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department

Abstract

Address at the Bank of England Twentieth Anniversary Conference London, U.K. September 29, 2017 International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde delivered this address at the Bank of England conference, “Independence—20 Years On” in London, U.K., on September 29, 2017.

International Monetary Fund
The 2012 Article IV Consultation on Mauritius reports that the outlook for growth and inflation is broadly positive, although growth is likely to slow somewhat to below 4 percent. The cyclical component of Mauritius’ fiscal balance is projected to be small. A less expansionary fiscal stance than currently projected by IMF staff would contribute to building policy buffers and reducing relatively high debt levels. In the event of a deterioration in the external environment, automatic stabilizers should be allowed to work, and limited fiscal stimulus could also be considered.
Mr. William E. Alexander, Mr. John Cady, and Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia

Abstract

The Data Dissemination Initiative was launched in the mid-1990s as part of a broader internationally-agreed-upon initiative to strengthen transparency and promote good governance practices by establishing standards and codes. Ten years later, the initiative is viewed as an integral part of the international financial architecture, and is considered to have improved the functioning of international financial markets and contributed to global financial stability. This volume reviews certain aspects of the development of and experience with the initiative over the past decade, and concludes by reflecting on potential challenges ahead and possible enhancements.

Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia and Mr. John Cady
The effects of the adoption of the IMF's International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity Data Template on nominal exchange rate volatility are investigated for 48 countries. Estimation of panel data models indicates that nominal exchange rate volatility decreases following dissemination of reserves template data while the effects of indebtedness and reserve adequacy on volatility exhibit statistically significant changes.
International Monetary Fund
The Data Standards Initiatives, the SDDS and the GDDS, have achieved the goals the Executive Board set in its Fifth Review of July 2003. The staff sees the next three years as a period of consolidating these gains by maintaining the credibility of the SDDS through improved monitoring of countries’ observance of its requirements, and further integrating both the SDDS and GDDS under the Fund’s Data Quality Program (DQP) by aligning their structure with the Fund’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). The staff proposes to include no new data categories in the SDDS and GDDS. Instead, the staff proposes to deepen descriptive information on how countries cover oil and gas activities and products in selected existing data categories.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
L’édition web du Bulletin du FMI est mise à jour plusieurs fois par semaine et contient de nombreux articles sur des questions de politique générale et de politique économique d'actualité. Accédez aux dernières recherches du FMI, lisez des interviews et écoutez des podcasts proposés par les principaux économistes du FMI sur des questions importantes de l'économie mondiale. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx