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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) risk analysis work was conducted in the aftermath of the initial COVID shock and subsequent lockdowns, and while a strong economic recovery was underway in Colombia during 2021. Given the persistent uncertainty around the evolution of the COVID-19 virus, and for the trajectory of the economic recovery, the outlook remained subject to significant revisions throughout the year. While the workstreams took the latest macroeconomic and supervisory data updates into account as much as possible for the various analyses, the test results and their implications should be interpreted with caution due to high uncertainty around the central projections and downside risks.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The pandemic led to Colombia’s largest recession on record, but the economy bounced back strongly in 2021. The banking system has so far weathered the shock well, with the help of a strong policy and support response and strong initial position. Colombia is exposed to elevated external financing risks and the further prolongation of the pandemic. Large and complex financial conglomerates with increasing cross-border exposures dominate the financial system. The consumer-credit portfolio deserves attention as it has been growing fast and had high impairment rate during the pandemic.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The Statistics Department (STA) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided technical assistance (TA) on financial soundness indicators (FSI) to Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia (SFC) during August 30-September 3, 2021. The TA mission took place at the request of and with the support of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department (WHD). Due to travel restrictions because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the mission was conducted remotely via video conferences. The mission assisted the SFC officials to (i) review the characteristics of financial institutions and ensure proper classification of financial institutions as deposit-takers (DTs) or other financial corporations (OFCs) for the compilation of FSIs as set out in the IMF’s 2019 Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide (2019 FSIs Guide); and (ii) develop a work program and timeline to revise the reported FSIs because of the mission’s work.
Can Sever and Manuel Perez-Archila
This paper builds a framework to quantify the financial stability implications of climate-related transition risk in Colombia. We explore risks imposed on the banking system based on scenarios of an increase in the domestic carbon tax by using bank- and firm-level data. Focusing on the deterioration of firms’ balance sheets and the exposure of banks to different sectors, we assess the extent to which such policy shock would transmit from nonfinancial firms to the banking system. We observe that sectors are affected unevenly by a higher carbon tax. Agriculture, manufacturing, electricity, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation sectors appear to be the most important in the transmission of the risk to the banking system. Results also suggest that a large increase in the carbon tax can generate significant but likely manageable financial stability risks, and that a gradual increase in the carbon tax to meet a higher target over several years could be preferable in terms of financial risks. A gradual increase would also have the benefit of allowing for a smoother adjustment to higher carbon tax for stakeholders.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
COVID-19 has taken a severe toll on Colombia’s society and economy—including over 60,000 deaths and over 5 million jobs temporarily lost in Colombia’s largest recession on record. A gradual but uneven recovery led by private domestic demand and manufacturing is underway, but services continue to be weak. While the economy had remained resilient before the pandemic owing to very strong policy frameworks, economic activity is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2022.