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Kiyoshi Nakayama
A well-designed regional tax treaty to which developing countries are signatories will include provisions securing minimum withholding taxes on investment income and technical service fees, a taxing right in respect of capital gains from indirect offshore transfers, and guarding against-treaty shopping. A tax treaty policy framework—national or regional—that specifies the main policy outcomes to be achieved before negotiations commence would enable developing countries with more limited expertise and lower capacity for tax treaty negotiations to avoid concluding problematic tax treaties. This note provides guidance for members of regional economic communities in the developing world on what should and should not be included in a regional tax treaty and how to design on a common tax treaty policy framework for use in negotiations of bilateral tax treaties with nonmembers.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper looks at some Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) specific regional dimensions of a possible strategy to enhance governance, which would support specific reforms in this area at the country level. The paper describes the specific dimensions of governance covered in the note. The paper also analyzes governance and corruption in the areas of public financial management, anti-money laundering, and the link between the oil sector and public resources. The CEMAC regional institutions will have to play a central role to lead progress in these areas, and support member countries’ own efforts. Due to such actions result in giving a coherent framework to actions conducted at the country level, the synergic dimension can spur a virtuous circle, key to earn the benefit of an economic and monetary union. The success of the regional strategy that CEMAC member countries and regional institutions are implementing to exit the severe crisis they are facing depends critically on creating the conditions for laying the ground for a diversified economy, within a well-functioning regional market and an environment that provides opportunities for all and where public resources are geared to most productive use.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The region is seeing a modest growth uptick, but this is not uniform and the medium-term outlook remains subdued. Growth is projected to rise to 3.4 percent in 2018, from 2.8 percent in 2017, on the back of improved global growth, higher commodity prices, and continued strong public spending. About ¾ of the countries in the region are predicted to experience faster growth. Beyond 2018, growth is expected to plateau below 4 percent, modestly above population growth, reflecting continued sluggishness in the oil-exporting countries and sustained growth in non-resource-intensive countries. A number of countries (Burundi, DRC, South Sudan, and parts of the Sahel) remain locked in internal conflict resulting in record levels of refugees and Internally Displaced Persons, with adverse spillovers to neighboring countries.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses the structure of the financial sector in Chad and describes the key macro-financial linkages. Macro-financial linkages in Chad are driven by a government sector that dominates economic activities in the more modern sectors of the economy, thanks to oil-related revenues. The main macro-financial linkages are indirect through the associated sharp fiscal adjustment and the government’s quest for additional financing. Direct credit risks linked to the oil sector appear limited. However, there seems to be a link between declining oil prices and deteriorating banking soundness indicators. The current economic conditions negatively affect private companies dependent on public contracts, potentially hitting the health of banks’ loan portfolios.
Céline Allard, Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko, Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia, Emmanouil Kitsios, Mr. Juan P Trevino, and Ms. Wenjie Chen
This analysis of the extent of trade integration of sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries in the global economy as well as within the region over the 1995–2013 period focuses on four key concepts: (1) trade openness, captured by import and export flows; (2) the centrality in the global and regional trade network, a measure that takes into account not only the size of trade but also the number of trade partners and the respective weight of these trade partners in global trade; (3) gravity model estimates that account for country- and region-specific determinants of bilateral trade flows; and (4) global value chain (GVC) integration. Using both existing data and a newly available dataset based on multiregion input and output tables, this analysis led to several findings: (1) trade openness has increased strongly; (2) integration in the global economy has made the region more vulnerable to external shocks; (3) levels of trade flows emanating from sub-Saharan Africa are still only half the magnitude of those experienced elsewhere in the world; (4) the region still has ways to go to better integrate in GVCs; and (5) it is more critical than ever to make progress in filling the infrastructure gap by lowering tariff and nontariff barriers, improving the business climate and access to credit, and continuing to enhance education outcomes.
Ms. Dalia S Hakura, Mr. Adrian Alter, Matteo Ghilardi, Mr. Rodolfo Maino, Mr. Cameron McLoughlin, and Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
The Republic of Congo has seen dramatic improvement in its debt situation since 2010, following debt relief through the IMF and World Bank Heavily Indebted Poor Countries/Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. Large oil revenues have allowed the country to boost spending and increase foreign exchange reserves. Yet poverty and inequality remain comparatively high. This paper examines Congo’s challenge to manage its natural resource revenue and attain sustained inclusive growth.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper analyzes the effect of an IMF Staff-Monitored Program for Chad to enhance economic development. Weak institutional capacity and governance concerns have limited economic development and donor support in Chad. It is highlighted that the reduction in the nonoil primary deficit envisaged in the 2013 budget appears appropriate, but expenditures linked to the regional security situation and lower than anticipated oil revenues imply large financing needs. There are significant economic and political risks to program implementation,; the regional security situation remains volatile, and the economy is highly dependent on volatile oil revenue.