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Ms. Alina Carare, Bertrand Candelon, Jean-Baptiste Hasse, and Jing Lu
This study expands the empirical specification of Cerra and Saxena (2008), and allows short-term output growth regimes to be determined by globalization. Relying on a non-linear dynamic panel representation, it reconciles the earlier results in the literature regarding the two opposite narratives of the effects of globalization on output growth. Countries experience higher growth, on average, the more open and integrated they are into the world. However, once they reach a certain globalization threshold (endogenously estimated), countries may also experience a new normal, persistently lower short-term output growth following a financial crisis. The benefits, as well as vulnerabilities, accrue earlier in the globalization process for low- and middle-income countries. To solely reap the globalization benefits on growth, sound policies should be in place to mitigate the negative effects stemming from increased vulnerabilities brought by globalization.
International Monetary Fund
The Background Notes in this Supplement provide essential context and analysis needed to understand the problem of governance and corruption, its impact on the economies of Fund members, and the history and nature of Fund engagement on these issues. They also seek to support the assessment of the Fund’s overall approach to promoting good governance and reducing corruption—including through the lenses of key stakeholders—with a view to identifying strength and closing any remaining gaps.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper provides detailed assessment of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community's (CEMAC’s) financial system. Over the past decade, primarily as a result of high oil prices, CEMAC achieved robust economic growth, although lower than the SSA average, but insufficient to significantly reduce poverty. A poor business climate and weak governance are hampering financial sector development and its contribution to financing investments. The weakness of regional integration also limits the growth potential. The drop in oil prices by about 60 percent between June 2014 and January 2015 has had a large impact on CEMAC countries’ macroeconomic performance.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
In the December 2013 IMF Research Bulletin, the Research Summaries look at “Reforming Dual Labor Markets in Advanced Economies” (Giovanni Ganelli) and “Rating Through-The-Cycle: What Does the Concept Imply for Rating Stability Accuracy” (John Kiff, Michael Kisser, and Liliana Schumacher). The Q&A discusses Seven Questions on Financial Crises (Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia). This issue also includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers and IMF Staff Discussion Notes, as well as Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. The top-viewed articles from recent of issues of “IMF Economic Review” are featured.
Mr. Montfort Mlachila and Mr. Masafumi Yabara
Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have seen accelerated growth for an extended period of time since the mid-1990s, making a clear break with their long stagnant growth during the previous two decades. That said, the region faces significant challenges over the medium to long term, including reducing poverty, overcoming infrastructure bottlenecks, enhancing productivity and skill levels, and improving the business climate, among others. The banking sector remains underdeveloped in SSA, thus reducing its contribution to growth, although its limited integration with global financial markets helped countries weather adverse effects of the global financial crisis. It is imperative that the banking sector plays a more active role in SSA, in order to achieve sustainable growth led by the private sector. This paper, building on the recent literature on SSA, discusses the main features of the region’s growth and macroeconomic performance in recent years and the outlook for the coming years; it then reviews the main features of SSA banking systems and how they were affected by the global economic crisis, while flagging some factors that could influence financial sector developments in SSA in the period ahead.
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris and Yasemin Bal Gunduz
This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis. 
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Annual Report 2012 presents an overview of overall developments in FY2012. In FY2012, the IEO expended approximately 97 percent of its total budgetary resources, including the approved budget amount and the resources carried forward from FY2011 as authorized. Vacancies amounted to about one and one-half staff years over the course of the financial year. This level of vacancies is within the range of what could be expected in a small organization with structural difficulties in recruitment and retention.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx