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Andrea Deghi, Dulani Seneviratne, and Tomohiro Tsuruga
This paper assesses whether corporate liquidity needs in the G7 economies were met during the containment phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (February-June 2020) using various approaches to identify credit supply shocks. The pandemic crisis adversely affected nonfinancial corporate sector cash flows, generating liquidity and solvency pressures. However, corporate borrowing surged in March and into the second quarter, thanks to credit line drawdowns and unprecedented policy support. In the United States, the bond market was buoyant from the end of March onward, but credit supply conditions for bank loans and the syndicated loan market tightened. In other G7 economies, credit supply conditions generally eased somewhat across markets during the second quarter. Among listed firms, entities with weaker liquidity or solvency positions before the onset of COVID-19, as well as smaller firms, suffered relatively more financial stress in some economies in the early stages of the crisis. Residual signs of strain remained as of the end of June. Policy interventions, especially those directly targeting the corporate sector, had a beneficial effect on credit supply overall.
Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri, Mr. Yifei Huang, and Mr. Prakash Loungani
We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty—measured by stock market volatility—reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. This effect is larger during recessions, when financing constraints are more likely to be binding, than during expansions. Our statistical method—a difference-in-difference approach using productivity growth for 25 industries for 18 advanced economies over the period 1985-2010—mitigates concerns with omitted variable bias and reverse causality. The results are robust to the inclusion of other sources of interaction effects, such as financial development (Rajan and Zingales, 1998) and counter-cyclical fiscal policy (Aghion et al., 2014). The results also hold if economic policy uncertainty (Baker et al., 2015) is used instead of stock market volatility as the measure of aggregate uncertainty.
Yoko Shinagawa
This paper defines financial market spillovers as the comovement between two countries’ financial markets and analyzes financial market spillovers over the period 2001-12 through four channels: bilateral portfolio investment, bilateral trade, home bias, and country concentration. The paper finds that, if a country has a large amount of bilateral portfolio exposure in another country, these two countries’ comovement of bond yields are large. Also, countries’ geographical preferences impact financial spillovers; if a country has a stronger home bias, the country could have less spillovers from foreign financial markets. A policy implication from this result is that, if countries become less home-biased and have a greater amount of portfolio investment assets, they should strengthen prudential regulations to mitigate against rising risks of financial spillovers (or risk greater volatility owing to comovement with foreign markets).
Ms. Sònia Muñoz, Mr. Samir Jahjah, Mr. Martin Cihak, Ms. Sharika Teh Sharifuddin, and Mr. Kalin I Tintchev
The global financial crisis has renewed policymakers' interest in improving the policy framework for financial stability, and an open question is to what extent and in what form should financial stability reports be part of it. We examine the recent experience with central banks' financial stability reports, and find?despite some progress in recent years?that forward-looking perspective and analysis of financial interconnectedness are often lacking. We also find that higher-quality reports tend to be associated with more stable financial environments. However, there is only a weak empirical link between financial stability report publication per se and financial stability. This suggests room for improvement in terms of the quality of financial stability reports.
Yishay Yafeh and Mr. Stijn Claessens
Using newly-constructed data covering the last decade, we document that, in most of forty markets, when added to the main index, firms’ returns experience an increase in comovement with the rest of the index, reflected in higher beta and greater explanatory power of the market return. Stock turnover and analyst coverage also typically increase upon inclusion. Using various tests, we find the demand-based view of comovement (the category/habitat theories of Barberis, Shleifer and Wurgler, 2005) to provide a good explanation for many of our findings. Some results, though, suggest that information-related factors are also important in explaining the increased comovement.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper analyzes transmission of the great recession from advanced to emerging economies. The widespread impact of the global financial crisis of 2008–09 has spurred researchers to examine how the associated recession was transmitted from advanced to emerging economies. Recent IMF studies have found that precrisis vulnerabilities such as large current account deficits, rapid credit growth, and high levels of short-term debt were strongly associated with the magnitude of spillovers. Trade, bank lending, and financial markets served as key transmission channels.
Chrismin Tang, Mr. Mardi Dungey, Mr. Vance Martin, Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, and Ms. Renee Fry
This paper investigates whether financial crises are alike by considering whether a single modeling framework can fit multiple distinct crises in which contagion effects link markets across national borders and asset classes. The crises considered are Russia and LTCM in the second half of 1998, Brazil in early 1999, dot-com in 2000, Argentina in 2001-2005, and the recent U.S. subprime mortgage and credit crisis in 2007. Using daily stock and bond returns on emerging and developed markets from 1998 to 2007, the empirical results show that financial crises are indeed alike, as all linkages are statistically important across all crises. However, the strength of these linkages does vary across crises. Contagion channels are widespread during the Russian/LTCM crisis, are less important during subsequent crises until the subprime crisis, where again the transmission of contagion becomes rampant.
Mr. Stephan Danninger, Ms. Irina Tytell, Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan, and Mr. Selim A Elekdag
This paper studies how financial stress is transmitted from advanced to emerging economies, using a new financial stress index for emerging economies. An episode of financial stress is defined as a period when the financial system's ability to intermediate may be impaired. Previous financial crises in advanced economies passed through strongly and rapidly to emerging economies. In line with this pattern, the unprecedented spike in financial stress in advanced economies elevated financial stress across emerging economies above levels seen during the Asian crisis, but with significant cross-country variation. The extent of pass-through of financial stress is related to the depth of financial linkages between advanced and emerging economies. The paper finds that higher current account and fiscal balances do little to insulate emerging economies from the transmission of financial stress in advanced economies. However, they may help dampen the impact on the real sector of emerging economies and help reestablish financial stability and foreign capital inflows once financial stress subsides.
Mr. Gianni De Nicolo and Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko
This paper constructs new indicators of liquidity for equity, bond and money markets in major advanced and emerging market countries, documents their evolution and comovements, and assesses the extent to which such measures are determinants of selected spreads and proxy measures of countries' growth opportunities. Three main results obtain. First, there is evidence of an historical increase in market liquidity since the early 1990s, in part as a result of advances in international financial integration, but markets have been increasingly exposed to global systemic liquidity shocks. Second, liquidity indicators appear to be important determinants of bond spreads in advanced economies and EMBI spreads in emerging markets. Third, improvements in market liquidity have significant real effects, as liquidity indicators have a significant positive impact on proxy measures of countries' growth opportunities.