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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) visited Minsk during for the seventh of the planned eight short-term technical assistance (TA) missions to help the NBRB enhance its modeling, forecasting and policy analysis capacity, and the forecasting and policy analysis system, sponsored by the Swedish International Development Agency. The NBRB is reforming its monetary policy framework in line with recommendations of past IMF TA missions and its Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting with the aim of eventually adopting inflation targeting (IT). Transitioning to IT would require, among other strengthening the monetary policy forecasting and analysis system (FPAS) and better integrating the core quarterly projection model (QPM) into the decision-making process. The mission was mainly aimed at helping with reviewing the initial conditions and compiling a QPM-based forecast as a part of the NBRB’s September forecasting round. The mission, in addition, worked on strengthening processes within the FPAS.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance (TA) report on the Republic of Belarus focuses on various aspects of monetary policy modeling. This TA mission was the fifth from series of quarterly IMF TA missions focused on the forecasting and analysis system capacity building. It was mainly aimed to simulate initial conditions and compile a quarterly projection model (QPM)-based forecast scenario as a part of a practical forecasting round at the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) in March. Moreover, the mission worked with the modeling team to deepen its understanding of the QPM’s role in policy decision making and in internal communication. Adopting Inflation Targeting and increasing monetary policy effectiveness would require broad-based reforms as compressively outlined in the developed Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting. This medium-term TA project aims to primarily help the NBRB with medium-term inflation forecasting and policy analysis and related tools to effectively support policy making. The project composed of series of TA and training missions particularly focused on the preparation of forecasts and policy analyses, the medium-term forecasting and policy analysis model, and presentations of the forecasts and policy analysis.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Russian Federation’s growth slowdown that began in 2011, reflecting structural constraints, continued in 2013 despite accommodative policies. Real GDP growth slowed to 1.3 percent owing to a contraction in investment while consumption remained robust owing to strong real wage growth and an unsecured consumer credit boom. The general government balance moved from a modest surplus in 2012 to a deficit of slightly more than 1 percent of GDP in 2013. The IMF staff projects real GDP growth at 0.2 percent in 2014 with considerable downside risks.
International Monetary Fund
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Belarus’s centralized economy grew rapidly over the past few years, enhancing social development. The state redistributed large and growing terms-of-trade gains stemming from favorable Russian energy pricing across the economy, boosting domestic demand. A new energy agreement, however, has abruptly reversed terms-of-trade gains. Belarus now pays Russia twice as much for gas supplies as in 2006 and a fifth more as a share of world market prices for crude oil. This resulted in an estimated loss of 5½ percent of GDP in 2007.
Mr. Mark J Flanagan and Mr. Felix Hammermann
Panel estimates based on 19 transition economies suggests that some central banks may aim at comparatively high inflation rates mainly to make up for, and to perhaps exploit, lagging internal and external liberalization in their economies. Out-of-sample forecasts, based on expected developments in the underlying structure of these economies, and assuming no changes in institutions, suggest that incentives may be diminishing, but not to the point where inflation levels below 5 percent could credibly be announced as targets. Greater economic liberalization would help reduce incentives for higher inflation, and enhancements to central bank independence could help shield these central banks from pressures.
International Monetary Fund
This report reviews the Observance of Standards and Codes on Fiscal Transparency for Belarus. Belarus meets the requirements of the fiscal transparency code in some important areas. There is a comprehensive legal and administrative framework for management of budget resources. The Budget systems law contains an explicit commitment to an open and transparent budget process, and budget coverage improved considerably with the inclusion of five major extrabudgetary funds into the budget in 1998. Budget execution mechanisms are quite effective, and budget execution reports are of consistent quality.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

La política fiscal influye en el desarrollo sostenible a través de sus efectos en el crecimiento, el medio ambiente y el desarrollo de los recursos naturales. ¿Qué relaciones existen entre la política fiscal y el desarrollo sostenible y de qué manera el FMI procura promover el desarrollo sostenible a través de su asesoramiento sobre políticas? ¿Qué lecciones se han extraído hasta ahora y de qué manera los gobiernos, la comunidad internacional y las instituciones financieras internacionales pueden respaldar mejor el desarrollo sostenible?

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

La politique budgétaire influe sur le développement durable par les effets qu'elle exerce sur la croissance économique, sur l'environnement et sur la mise en valeur des ressources. Quelles sont les relations entre la politique budgétaire et le développement durable, et comment le FMI s'efforce-t-il de promouvoir le développement durable dans ses recommandations ? Quel est le bilan de l'expérience acquise à ce jour, et par quels moyens les pouvoirs publics, la communauté internationale et les institutions financières internationales peuvent-ils promouvoir plus efficacement le développement durable ?

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Fiscal policy affects sustainable development through its effects on growth, the environment, and resource development. What are the relationships between fiscal policy and sustainable development, and how does the IMF seek to promote sustainable development in its policy advice? What lessons have been learned so far, and how can governments, the international community, and international financial institutions more fully support sustainable development?

International Monetary Fund
This paper assesses the Russian Federation’s 2001 Article IV Consultation and Post-Program Monitoring Discussions. Improved economic performance and reduced external vulnerability were reflected in a strengthening of financial market indicators in 2001. The Russian stock market doubled in U.S. dollar terms, bond spreads narrowed significantly, and rating agencies upgraded Russia’s debt. The near- to medium-term outlook remains favorable. The recent successes in building up strong external and fiscal positions should enable Russia to deal with the current less favorable external environment with the prevailing policy framework.