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Daniel Gurara, Mr. Giovanni Melina, and Luis-Felipe Zanna
Over the past seven years, the DIG and DIGNAR models have complemented the IMF and World Bank debt sustainability framework (DSF) analysis, over 65 country applications. They have provided useful insights in the context of program and surveillance work, based on qualitative and quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic effects of public investment scaling-ups. This paper takes stock of the model applications and extensions, and extract five common policy lessons from the universe of country cases. First, improving public investment efficiency and/or raising the rate of return of public projects raises growth and lowers the risks associated with debt sustainability. Second, prudent and gradual investment scaling-ups are preferable to aggressive front-loaded ones, in terms of private sector crowding-out effects, absorptive capacity constraints, and debt sustainability risks. Third, domestic revenue mobilization helps create fiscal space for investment scaling-ups, by effectively containing public debt surges and their later-on repayments. Fourth, aid smoothens fiscal adjustments associated with public investment increases and may lower the risks of unsustainable debt. Fifth, external savings mitigate Dutch disease macroeconomic effects and serve as fiscal buffers. The paper also discusses how these models were used to estimate the quantitative macro economic effects associated with these lessons.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Abstract

The 2018 Annual Report of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics provides an overview of trends in global balance of payments statistics.

Ms. Anne Epaulard and Ms. Aude Pommeret
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the welfare gains from financial integration for developing and emerging market economies. To do so, we build a stochastic endogenous growth model for a small open economy that can (i) borrow from the rest of the world, (ii) invest in foreign assets, and (iii) receive foreign direct investment (FDI). The model is calibrated on 32 emerging market and developing economies for which we evaluate the upper bound for the welfare gain from financial integration. For plausible values of preference parameters and actual levels of financial integration, the mean welfare gain from financial integration is about 10 percent of initial wealth. Compared with financial autarky, actual levels of financial integration translate into slightly higher annual growth rates (around 0.4 percentage point per year.)
Mr. Anupam Basu and Mr. Krishna Srinivasan
This paper reviews the experiences of a few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that have succeeded in attracting fairly large amounts of foreign investment. The review indicates that sustained efforts to promote political and macroeconomic stability and implement essential structural reforms have been the key elements contributing to the success that certain countries in Africa have achieved in attracting a substantial volume of FDI. Strong leadership, which has helped promote democracy and overcome social and political strife, and a firm commitment to economic reform have been important determinants. The adoption of sound fiscal and monetary policies, supported by an appropriate exchange rate policy, and a proactive approach to removing structural impediments to private sector activity have had a positive bearing on investor sentiment. The analysis underscores the importance of relying on stability and a broad-based reform effort to encourage foreign investment in Africa.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

A companion document to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, the Balance of Payments Compilation Guide shows how the conceptual framework described in the Manual may be implemented in practice. The primary purpose of the Guide is to provide practical guidance for using sources and methods to compile statistics on the balance of payments and the international investment position. the Guide is designed to assist balance of payments compilers and statisticians in understanding the relative strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. The material reflects the emergence of new data sources and adaptations in the application of statistical methodologies to changing circumstances. Discussed in the Guide are all of the tasks that a BOP compiler normally performs. Appendices contain a set of model BOP questionnaires and a set of model BOP publication tables. Relationships between the balance of payments statistics and relevant aspects of national accounts are covered as well.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

A companion document to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, the Balance of Payments Compilation Guide shows how the conceptual framework described in the Manual may be implemented in practice. The primary purpose of the Guide is to provide practical guidance for using sources and methods to compile statistics on the balance of payments and the international investment position. The Guide is designed to assist experienced and aspiring balance of payments compilers and statisticians in understanding the relative strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. The material reflects the emergence of new data sources and adaptations in the application of statistical methodologies to changing circumstances. Discussed in the Guide are all of the tasks that a BOP compiler normally performs. Appendices contain a set of model BOP questionaires and a set of model BOP publication tables. Relationships between the balance of payments statistics and relevant aspects of national accounts are covered as well.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

A companion document to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, the Balance of Payments Compilation Guide shows how the conceptual framework described in the Manual may be implemented in practice. The primary purpose of the Guide is to provide practical guidance for using sources and methods to compile statistics on the balance of payments and the international investment position. The Guide is designed to assist experienced and aspiring balance of payments compilers and statisticians in understanding the relative strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. The material reflects the emergence of new data sources and adaptations in the application of statistical methodologies to changing circumstances. Discussed in the Guide are all of the tasks that a BOP compiler normally performs. Appendices contain a set of model BOP questionaires and a set of model BOP publication tables. Relationships between the balance of payments statistics and relevant aspects of national accounts are covered as well.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Como complemento de la quinta edición del Manual de Balanza de Pagos, la Guía de Compilación de la Balanza de Pagos muestra cómo puede aplicarse en la práctica el marco conceptual descrito en dicho Manual. El principal objetivo de esta Guía es proporcionar orientación práctica para el uso de las fuentes y métodos de compilación de estadísticas sobre la balanza de pagos y la posición de inversión internacional. Esta Guía se ha diseñado para ayudar a los compiladores de la balanza de pagos y a los estadísticos a comprender las ventajas y desventajas de los diversos enfoques. El material refleja la aparición de nuevas fuentes de datos y las adaptaciones en la aplicación de las metodologías estadísticas ante los cambios del entorno. En esta Guía se analizan todas las tareas que normalmente realiza el compilador de la balanza de pagos. Los apéndices contienen un conjunto de cuestionarios modelo sobre la balanza de pagos y un conjunto de cuadros modelo de publicación de la balanza de pagos. También se abordan las relaciones entre las estadísticas de balanza de pagos y los aspectos pertinentes de las cuentas nacionales.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

A companion document to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, the Balance of Payments Compilation Guide shows how the conceptual framework described in the Manual may be implemented in practice. The primary purpose of the Guide is to provide practical guidance for using sources and methods to compile statistics on the balance of payments and the international investment position. the Guide is designed to assist balance of payments compilers and statisticians in understanding the relative strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. The material reflects the emergence of new data sources and adaptations in the application of statistical methodologies to changing circumstances. Discussed in the Guide are all of the tasks that a BOP compiler normally performs. Appendices contain a set of model BOP questionnaires and a set of model BOP publication tables. Relationships between the balance of payments statistics and relevant aspects of national accounts are covered as well.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Document d'accompagnement de la cinquième édition du Manuel de la balance des paiements, le Guide pour l’établissement des statistiques de balance des paiements explique comment mettre en œuvre concrètement le cadre conceptuel décrit dans le manuel.. Le but premier de ce guide est de fournir des indications pratiques sur l’utilisation de sources et de méthodes pour établir des statistiques sur la balance des paiements et la position extérieure globale. Il est conçu pour aider les statisticiens, spécialistes de la balance des paiements ou non, à comprendre les atouts et les inconvénients des différentes approches. Le document tient compte de l’émergence de nouvelles sources de données et des adaptations dans l’application des méthodes statistiques aux circonstances changeantes. Le guide aborde toutes les tâches normalement effectuées pour établir les statistiques de balance des paiements. Les annexes contiennent des modèles de questionnaires sur la BDP et des modèles de tableaux de publication de données relatives à la BDP. Les relations entre les statistiques de la balance des paiements et les aspects pertinents des comptes nationaux sont également couvertes.