Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Globalization

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 14 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Consumption; Economics x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Newly Industrialized Economies in Global Value Chains
Dominik Boddin
In light of increased vertical specialization and the dominance of trade in intermediates rather than final goods, this paper seeks to raise awareness of the limitations of traditional trade measures on a gross output basis. To do so, this paper uses the WIOD, a world input output table, as an alternative trade measure to analyze the role of six newly industrialized economies in global value chains. The differences between measures on a gross output basis and value added basis are striking. Export shares measured by both methods differed by more than 20 percent for some industries. These findings highlight the need for more sophisticated world input output data to form a better understanding of global trade dynamics and country interdependencies.
Keywords:
WP; value added; Global Value Chains; Vertical Specialization; Newly Industrialized Economies; export industry structure; export share; export vector; trade connection; export value; consumption share; Exports; Consumption; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown
Mr. Gee Hee Hong, Mr. Jaewoo Lee, and Wei Liao
Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.
Keywords:
WP; import growth; exchange rate; China's consumption; investment growth; upstream trade partner; trade linkages; trade elasticities; spillovers; import growth slowdown; investment demand; consumption imports; consumption demand increases; consumption growth; growth shock; import demand; capital goods; trading partners; Consumption; Exports; Imports; Export performance; Global value chains; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regionalization vs. Globalization
Mr. Hideaki Hirata, Mr. Ayhan Kose, and Mr. Christopher Otrok
Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the global, regional, and country-specific factors in explaining business cycles in a large sample of countries and regions over the period 1960–2010. We find that, since the mid-1980s, the importance of regional factors has increased markedly in explaining business cycles especially in regions that experienced a sharp growth in intra-regional trade and financial flows. By contrast, the relative importance of the global factor has declined over the same period. In short, the recent era of globalization has witnessed the emergence of regional business cycles.
Keywords:
WP; regional factor; factor loading; global factor; variance share; Business cycles; Comovement; Synchronization; Trade linkages; Financial linkages; business cycle synchronization; world business cycle; business cycle comovement; business cycle correlation; Consumption; Factor models; Trade balance; Global; North America; Europe; Asia and Pacific; North Africa
Cover Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization
Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization
Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Mr. Paolo Mauro, Mr. Andre Faria, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Julian Di Giovanni, Mr. Martin Schindler, Mr. Ayhan Kose, and Mr. Marco Terrones

Abstract

Financial globalization has increased dramatically over the past three decades, particularly for advanced economies, while emerging market and developing countries experienced more moderate increases. Divergences across countries stem from different capital control regimes, and factors such as institutional quality and domestic financial development. Although, in principle, financial globalization should enhance international risk sharing, reduce macroeconomic volatility, and foster economic growth, in practice its effects are less clear-cut. This paper envisages a gradual and orderly sequencing of external financial liberalization and complementary reforms in macroeconomic policy framework as essential components of a successful liberalization strategy.

Keywords:
OP; liberalization; capital; inancial globalization; control; volatility; risk sharing; asset trade; country fundamentals; consumption volatility; Financial integration; Capital controls; Financial sector development; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; East Asia; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?
Mr. Ayhan Kose, Mr. Eswar S Prasad, and Mr. Christopher Otrok
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Keywords:
WP; country factor; industrial country
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels
Mr. Marco Terrones, Mr. Ayhan Kose, and Mr. Eswar S Prasad
In theory, one of the main benefits of financial globalization is that it should allow for more efficient international risk sharing. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical evaluation of the patterns of risk sharing among different groups of countries and examines how international financial integration has affected the evolution of these patterns. Using a variety of empirical techniques, we conclude that there is at best a modest degree of international risk sharing, and certainly nowhere near the levels predicted by theory. In addition, only industrial countries have attained better risk sharing outcomes during the recent period of globalization. Developing countries have, by and large, been shut out of this benefit. The most interesting result is that even emerging market economies, which have experienced large increases in cross-border capital flows, have seen little change in their ability to share risk. We find that the composition of flows may help explain why emerging markets have not been able to realize this presumed benefit of financial globalization. In particular, our results suggest that portfolio debt, which has dominated the external liability stocks of most emerging markets until recently, is not conducive to risk sharing.
Keywords:
WP; risk sharing; consumption correlation; consumption growth; globalization period; consumption fluctuation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Merchantilism
Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza, Ceyhun Bora Durdu, and Mr. Marco Terrones
Financial globalization was off to a rocky start in emerging economies hit by Sudden Stops in the 1990s. The surge in foreign reserves since then is viewed as a New Merchantilism in which reserves are a war-chest for defense against Sudden Stops. We conduct a quantitative assessment of this argument using a framework in which precautionary savings affect foreign assets via business cycle volatility, financial globalization, and endogenous Sudden Stops. Our results show that financial globalization and Sudden Stop risk are plausible explanations of the surge in reserves but cyclical volatility, which has declined in the globalization period, is not.
Keywords:
WP; business cycle; debt limit; precautionary demand; globalization period; D. baseline result; business cycle volatility; Sudden Stop economy; effects of Volatility; Sudden stops; Foreign assets; Precautionary savings; Consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles
Mr. Ayhan Kose, Mr. Christopher Otrok, and Charles H. Whiteman
This paper studies the changes in world business cycles during 1960-2003. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common and country-specific components in the main macroeconomic aggregates of the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. We then quantify the relative importance of these components in explaining comovement in each observable aggregate over three distinct time periods: the Bretton Woods (BW) period (1960-72), the period of common shocks (1972-86), and the globalization period (1986-2003). The results indicate that the common (G-7) factor explains a larger fraction of output, consumption, and investment volatility in the globalization period than in the BW period. These findings suggest that the degree of comovement of business cycles in major macroeconomic aggregates across the G-7 countries has increased during the globalization period.
Keywords:
WP; first period; country factor; economic activity; monetary policy; International business cycles; globalization; transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations; factor granger; globalization period; factor loading; world factor; Business cycles; Consumption; Factor models; Vector autoregression; Global
Cover World Economic Outlook, April 2005
World Economic Outlook, April 2005
Globalization and External Balances
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

Keywords:
WEO; emerging market; current account; market; balance of payments; trade balance; net debtor countries; advanced economy; inflation risk; remittance-service providers; Oil prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Remittances; Oil; Exports; Global; Middle East; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central and Eastern Europe; remittance inflow; GDP ratio; headline inflation; IMF staff calculation; drive remittance system; price volatility; Oil consumption; Caribbean
Cover Effects on Financial Globalization on Developing Countries
Effects on Financial Globalization on Developing Countries
Some Empirical Evidence
Mr. Ayhan Kose, Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, Mr. Eswar S Prasad, and Shang-Jin Wei

Abstract

This study provides a candid, systematic, and critical review of recent evidence on this complex subject. Based on a review of the literature and some new empirical evidence, it finds that (1) in spite of an apparently strong theoretical presumption, it is difficult to detect a strong and robust causal relationship between financial integration and economic growth; (2) contrary to theoretical predictions, financial integration appears to be associated with increases in consumption volatility (both in absolute terms and relative to income volatility) in many developing countries; and (3) there appear to be threshold effects in both of these relationships, which may be related to absorptive capacity. Some recent evidence suggests that sound macroeconomic frameworks and, in particular, good governance are both quantitatively and qualitatively important in affecting developing countries’ experiences with financial globalization.

Keywords:
OP; economy; MFI economy; country; capital