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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Andorran economy is recovering strongly from the pandemic, supported by a rebound in tourism, retail trade, construction, and professional services. Real GDP is expected to reach pre-crisis levels in the second half of 2022. While the unemployment rate is amongst the lowest in Europe and continues to decline, pockets of vulnerability remain. Notwithstanding significant policy buffers, there are still substantial downside risks, notably the impact in Europe of the war in Ukraine, higher than expected inflation, and a resurgence of infection rates.
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Lu Han, Miss Marie S Kim, and Ms. Nicole Laframboise
This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlines, and departure cities on U.S. tourist arrivals. The possible endogeneity problem between airlift supply and tourist arrivals is addressed by using a structural panel VAR and individual country VARs. Among the four airlift supply measures, increasing the number of flights is found to be the most effective way to boost tourist arrivals on a sustained basis. As a case study, the possible crowding effect of increasing the number of U.S. flights to Cuba is investigated and, based on past observations, we find no significant impact on flights to other Caribbean countries. The impact of natural disasters on airlift supply and tourist arrivals is also quantified.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes sustaining potential growth in Aruba. As in the other Caribbean countries, there are growing concerns in Aruba about the slowdown in economic growth over the past two decades and the consequent tepid outlook for potential growth. Tackling such concerns requires identifying the underlying factors. This paper presents an overview of Aruba’s economic growth performance since 1990, analyzes factors behind the slowdown, and discusses how potential growth can be sustained. It suggests that Aruba should aim to finance its renewable energy and other future growth initiatives sustainably.
Ms. Nita Thacker, Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, and Mr. Roberto Perrelli
After earlier success, growth performance in most Caribbean countries has been disappointing since the early 1990s. With slower growth, output has fallen behind that of relevant comparator countries. This paper analyzes the growth experience of the Caribbean countries from a cross country perspective. Three findings stand out. First, the slowdown in growth is explained more by a decline in productivity rather than a lack of investment. Second, tourism has been a significant contributor to higher growth (through both capital accumulation and productivity) and lower output volatility, and in many countries there is scope for further expansion of this sector. Third, the small size and the fact that most of these countries are islands have limited growth. Policies aimed at improving productivity, further development of the tourism sector, and regional integration could pay dividends in terms of higher growth in the region.
International Monetary Fund
Owing to severe fiscal and external imbalances, the Maldives government adopted an IMF program in 2009. Despite some crucial initial actions, fiscal slippages and political polarization have undermined the restoration of sustainability. The key policy challenge is to prevent a fiscal crisis, achieve macroeconomic sustainability, and stimulate growth. The authorities concur with the need to tighten monetary policy. The authorities have welcomed the IMF program as a useful framework to guide and reinforce their efforts to restore external balance and fiscal sustainability.