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Business and Economics > Industries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Seychelles: Third Review Under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Indicative Targets-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Tourism is driving a strong economic recovery in Seychelles. Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 10.6 percent in 2022, up from 7.9 percent in 2021. However, the recovery is uneven across sectors of the economy. The authorities have already begun to rebuild policy buffers and have taken measures to protect the poorest as the country transitions from the COVID-19 outbreak. The primary fiscal deficit in 2022 is expected to narrow to 1.1 percent of GDP, reflecting an extraordinary consolidation of 13.6 percentage points over the last two years. Risks to debt sustainability have been significantly reduced with the public debt-to-GDP ratio projected at around 68 percent at end-2022, thereby registering a 21-percentage-point reduction in two years.
Keywords:
inflation indicator; Policy discussion; policy commitment; IMF's transparency policy; Policy recommendation; EFF arrangement; Capital spending; Tourism; Credit; Global; Middle East; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Natural Disasters and Scarring Effects
Weicheng Lian, Jose Ramon Moran, and Raadhika Vishvesh
This paper uses a novel empirical approach, following the literature on hysteresis, to explore medium-term scarring of natural disasters for countries vulnerable to climate change. By quantifying the dynamic effects of natural disasters on real GDP per capita for a large number of episodes using a synthetic control approach (SCA) and focusing on severe shocks, we demonstrate that a persistently large deviation of real GDP per capita from the counterfacutal trend exists five years after a severe shock in many countries. The findings highlight the importance and urgency of building ex-ante resilience to avoid scarring effects for countries prone to natural disasters, such as those in the Caribbean region.
Keywords:
Natural disasters; scarring effects; synthetic control approach; IMF working papers; scarring effect; ante resilience; medium-term scarring; output effect; Tourism; Climate change; Caribbean; Global; Western Hemisphere