Ruud A. de Mooij, Ms. Li Liu, and Dinar Prihardini
Formula apportionment as a way to attribute taxable profits of multinationals across jurisdictions is receiving increased attention. This paper reviews existing literature and discusses experiences in selective federal states to evaluate the economic properties of formula apportionment relative to the current international tax regime that is based on separate accounting. It highlights major advantages, such as the elimination of profit shifting within multinational groups; and it discusses new distortions and the impact on tax competition. The analysis exploits different datasets to assess the direct revenue implications for individual countries under alternative formulas. The distributional effects across countries are found to be large, reflecting major discrepancies between where profits are currently attributed and where factors of production are located or sales take place. The largest losses appear in investment hubs (i.e. countries with a disproportionate ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP), while several large advanced countries are likely to gain. Developing countries gain most likely if employment receives a large weight in the formula; they also tend to benefit, on average, from a formula based on sales by destination.
Emanuel Kopp, Mr. Daniel Leigh, Susanna Mursula, and Suchanan Tambunlertchai
There is no consensus on how strongly the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has stimulated U.S. private fixed investment. Some argue that the business tax provisions spurred investment by cutting the cost of capital. Others see the TCJA primarily as a windfall for shareholders. We find that U.S. business investment since 2017 has grown strongly compared to pre-TCJA forecasts and that the overriding factor driving it has been the strength of expected aggregate demand. Investment has, so far, fallen short of predictions based on the postwar relation with tax cuts. Model simulations and firm-level data suggest that much of this weaker response reflects a lower sensitivity of investment to tax policy changes in the current environment of greater corporate market power. Economic policy uncertainty in 2018 played a relatively small role in dampening investment growth.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Unemployment is low, inflation is well contained, and growth is set to accelerate. During the course of this administration, the economy is expected to enter the longest expansion in recorded U.S. history.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the cyclical position of the Irish economy. Assessing the business cycle in Ireland is complicated by the open character of its labor market and large presence of globally active multinationals. However, analysis suggests that the Irish economy is in the midst of a cyclical upswing. All methods suggest a positive output gap in 2017, while the labor market shows signs of upward wage pressures, as net immigration has been weak so far. These signs are consistent with a cyclical upswing, amid strong estimated potential output growth, and point to risks of a boom-bust cycle, should the economy continue to push the growth momentum.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic growth in Luxembourg reached 2.3 percent in 2017, above the European Union average, and was driven by net exports of financial services and private consumption. Growth is projected at 3.5 percent for 2018, with continued strong job creation, and a temporary slowdown in inflation. In 2017, buoyant corporate tax revenues contributed to a fiscal surplus of 1.4 percent of GDP. The full impact of 2016 tax reform, and a continued need for high public investment are expected to result in a small fiscal surplus over the medium-term.