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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses the economic developments, outlook, risk, and policies of Croatia. This East European country has begun since the last quarter of 2014 to gradually recover from a six-year recession. In 2015 real GDP grew by 1.6 percent, driven by strong exports and tourism, a revival of private consumption, and higher public investment. Consumer prices have largely been declining over the past two years, mainly due to lower energy and food prices. Unemployment declined only slightly since 2014 and remains very high. However, absent concrete measures to underpin some of the planned reforms, slightly higher deficit in 2016 and a slower pace of consolidation over the medium term are projected.
Mr. Alejandro Simone
Time series on economic activity in developing countries, in particular real GDP, are reported with important lags. Therefore, it is useful to construct indicators that coincide or lead the actual direction and level of economic activity. A general methodology to construct these indicators is proposed and adapted for Argentina. Three coincident indicators could be constructed, but no reliable leading indicator could be found. From an econometric standpoint, the coincident indicators produce satisfactory point estimates of real GDP. The series that enter the indicator are broadly consistent with what many economists believe is the main source of real GDP fluctuations in Argentina: shocks to the capital account of the balance of payments. This enhances the confidence in the econometric results.