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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Polish economy has rebounded strongly, with policy actions limiting the damage from the pandemic-induced recession by supporting employment and avoiding unnecessary bankruptcies. While the pandemic continues to take a toll on lives, the economy has been less impacted by successive waves of the pandemic.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation discussions with the Republic of Poland focused on the strong growth upswing since 2017, which has been supported by three coincident cycles: a rebound in euro-area activity, a substantial increase in European Union transfers, and new large social benefit programs. It has been highlighted in the report that risks to the outlook for the Polish economy from external developments are elevated, while any slippage from prudent policies and sound governance principles could dent investors’ risk appetite. Substantial adjustment in recent years has brought the medium-term objective within reach. Remaining adjustment should rely on sustainable, growth-friendly measures. The team recommended that independent and well-resourced financial supervision is essential for effective and even-handed oversight, particularly in a state-dominated financial system. Sustaining rapid income convergence as working-age population declines calls for durable increases in investment and productivity. Reforms should focus on removing existing barriers to investment, facilitating more reliable access to skilled labor, enhancing predictability of policy changes, and providing a level playing field for all investors by protecting the rights of minority shareholders and ensuring competition.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Poland’s near-term growth momentum remains strong, supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies and sizeable European Union transfers. The economy is operating above potential, with the unemployment rate at a historical low. Growth is projected to accelerate to 3.6 percent in 2017 and remain strong in 2018. Long-term growth, however, will be more subdued, unless adverse demographics and structural constraints on investment and productivity growth are addressed. Risks to the near-term outlook are broadly balanced. Monetary policy remains accommodative, with policy rate kept at a historically low level since early 2015.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Lithuania has been gathering momentum, following sluggish performance in 2015 and most of 2016. Real GDP expanded by 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2017 after rising by 2.3 percent in 2016. Strong private consumption, on the back of robust wage growth and low inflation that supported purchasing power, has long been a main driver of growth. Building on recent momentum, economic growth should be strong in 2017, rising to 3.2 percent. Improving external conditions and a turnaround in European funds absorption, as well as high capacity utilization, should spur exports and investment.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper describes mainly the introduction and performance of the Extended Fund Facility program for Pakistan. Since the start of the program in September 2013, economic growth has gradually recovered, inflation has fallen to low single digits, foreign reserve buffers have been rebuilt, social safety nets have been strengthened, and the fiscal deficit has significantly declined (although public debt remains high). Despite setbacks in privatization earlier in the year due to labor unrest and political opposition, the authorities remain committed to returning ailing public sector enterprises to a sound financial position, including through private participation, and to completing energy sector reform.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Poland has recovered from the 2012–13 slowdown. Growth accelerated to 3.4 percent in 2014, and further to 3.6 percent in the first quarter of 2015, on the back of buoyant domestic demand, supported by improving labor market and financial conditions. However, inflation has remained negative since July 2014 owing to low commodity prices and weak imported inflation. The outlook is for continued robust growth and subdued inflation amid downside risks. Economic expansion is expected to continue, with growth projected at 3.5 percent in 2015 and over the medium term.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Poland’s economy is steadily recovering from the 2012–2013 slowdown on the back of Poland’s very strong fundamentals and policies. Real GDP growth moderated to 1.6 percent in 2013 as the slowdown in core euro area countries had knock-on effects on consumer and investor confidence. However, a steady recovery is now under way. The outlook is for a continuing recovery, but external risks remain firmly on the downside. Growth is expected to reach 3.3 percent in 2014 but strong trade and financial linkages with core euro area countries make it vulnerable to growth shocks.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This staff report for the Republic of Poland’s 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic development and policies. The current account in 2012 was primarily financed by EU transfers and foreign direct investment (FDI), notwithstanding a reduction in net FDI inflows. Moderate outflows from the domestic banking system were more than offset by strong portfolio inflows into the government bond market. The current account deficit and real effective exchange rate are broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies according to the External Balance Assessment models. The largely foreign-owned banking system has remained well-capitalized, profitable, and liquid.
International Monetary Fund
This 2012 Article IV Consultation discusses that the economy of Poland fared well throughout the crisis. The growth was robust and well balanced in 2011. The banking sector remained profitable and well capitalized. Declining provisioning boosted profitability and the average capital adequacy ratio remained high at about 13 percent. Executive Directors have commended the authorities for sound macroeconomic management, which has underpinned the good performance of the Polish economy in a challenging environment. Directors have broadly supported the ongoing fiscal adjustment, which is necessary to rebuild fiscal buffers.
International Monetary Fund
In this study, the economic development of Poland after the recession is discussed. The importance of maintaining macroeconomic policies and advancing growth-enhancing structural reforms are explained. Increase in labor participation and a reduction in product market rigidities are key to increase potential growth. Improvements of the balance of payments compilation system has been encouraged by the authorities. To strengthen the financial sector, increase the independence of financial supervision authority, develop a framework for coordinating policy responses to systemic risks, and strengthen the bank resolution framework are also encouraged.