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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Slovakia is highly vulnerable to the war in Ukraine, given its geographical proximity, heavy reliance on energy imports from Russia, and high integration into global value chains. The shock occurs against the backdrop of an incomplete recovery from the pandemic, with activity hampered by breakdowns in global supply chains and resurgent infection waves. Growth is projected to slow to 2.2 percent and inflation to surge to over 10 percent in 2022, with sizable downside risks amidst exceptionally large uncertainty.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Real GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic trend in early 2021, and the labor market is tight. Inflation is increasing, mainly driven by energy prices, but core inflation is also edging up. The fiscal position strengthened and the financial sector has remained resilient. Rapidly growing housing prices raise concerns about affordability and could pose risks for financial stability and the country’s attractiveness in the medium term. Following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, inflation pressures have intensified and financial market volatility has risen.
Mr. Marco Gross, Mr. Thierry Tressel, Xiaodan Ding, and Eugen Tereanu
We present an analysis of the sensitivity of household mortgage probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGDs) on unemployment rates, house price growth, interest rates, and other drivers. A structural micro-macro simulation model is used to that end. It is anchored in the balance sheets and income-expense flow data from about 95,000 households and 230,000 household members from 21 EU countries and the U.S. We present country-specific nonlinear regressions based on the structural model simulation-implied relation between PDs and LGDs and their drivers. These can be used for macro scenario-conditional forecasting, without requiring the conduct of the micro simulation. We also present a policy counterfactual analysis of the responsiveness of mortgage PDs, LGDs, and bank capitalization conditional on adverse scenarios related to the COVID-19 pandemic across all countries. The economics of debt moratoria and guarantees are discussed against the background of the model-based analysis.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Israeli economy has weathered the COVID-19 crisis exceptionally well, but risks are high. With substantial fiscal and monetary support, real GDP growth reached 8.1 percent in 2021, driven by consumption and high-tech exports. The rapid vaccination campaign boosted confidence. The outlook is positive but still subject to high uncertainty.