A strand of research documents Chile’s copper dependence hence significant exposure to terms of trade shocks. Copper prices’ sharp decline and forecast uncertainty since the end of the commodity super-cycle has rekindled the debate on Chile’s adjustment capacity to external shocks. Following Malz (2014), this paper builds a time-varying measure of copper price uncertainty using options contracts. VAR analysis shows that the investment response to an uncertainty shock of average magnitude in the sample is strong and persistent: the cumulative fall in investment from trend at a one-year horizon ranges 2–5.8 percentage points; and it takes between 1½ and 2 years for investment to return to its trend level. Empirical ranges depend on alternative definitions for investment, uncertainty, and options’ maturing time.
The Executive Board has held three formal meetings on the quota formula review, and discussions have also taken place in other fora including the IMFC Deputies work stream and the G-20 IFA Working Group. Considerable progress has been made in terms of identifying areas of common ground as well as those areas where views differ. At their most recent meeting in late September, Directors reaffirmed their commitment to completing the review by January 2013, and stressed that achieving this goal will require constructive engagement and a spirit of flexibility and compromise from all sides. At its subsequent meeting in Tokyo, the IMFC called on the membership to develop the consensus needed through further engagement of the Executive Board, with input from the IMFC Deputies, to complete the review by January 2013.
This paper summarizes key developments in the Fund’s policy work since the 2008 Annual Meetings. Table 1 presents key conclusions of policy initiatives. Table 2 provides a progress report on implementation of the Fund’s surveillance priorities.
Crude oil prices have been on a run-up spree in recent years. Their dynamics were characterized by high volatility, high intensity jumps, and strong upward drift, indicating that oil markets were constantly out-of-equilibrium. An explanation of the oil price process in terms of the underlying fundamentals of oil markets and world economy was provided, viewing pressure on oil prices mainly as a result of rigid crude oil supply and an expanding world demand for crude oil. A change in the oil price process parameters would require a change in the underlying fundamentals. Market expectations, extracted from call and put option prices, anticipated no change, in the short term, in the underlying fundamentals. Markets expected oil prices to remain volatile and jumpy, and with higher probabilities, to rise, rather than fall, above the expected mean.
Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau and Mr. Armando Méndez Morales
This paper analyzes the informational efficiency of OTC currency options on the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty correcting for the volatility risk premium and errors-in-variable problems, using state-of-the-art techniques (Chernov 2001). It finds that these markets are more efficient than mature markets possibly because of higher relative participation of informed dedicated investors, which offset the effects of relative illiquidity and higher transaction costs in these countries. Moreover, implied volatilities generally anticipate the direction of volatility correctly, with a bias to overpredicting volatility increases reflecting one-sided markets.
The System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA) provided new standards for the statistical treatment of financial derivatives. Subsequently, financial derivative markets have evolved, and there have been requests from national statisticians for clarification and amplification of the recommendations in the 1993 SNA and the fifth edition of the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5). Meeting this need is the main purpose of this working paper. Its recommendations have been widely discussed in international meetings and have been approved by bodies that effect changes in the 1993 SNA and BPM5.