Business and Economics > Investments: Futures

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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Financial Sector Assessment Program report on People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region highlights that it has developed a sound framework for the regulation of securities markets, which exhibits a high level of implementation of the International Organization of Securities Commissions Principles. Both the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) are sophisticated regulators and have been able to leverage from domestic and international expertise to develop sound supervisory practices. Further, while traumatic, the Lehman minibond experience has led to material improvements in conduct supervision that have permeated both the SFC and the HKMA. Continuing efforts by the SFC to build up its capacity to identify and monitor emerging risks should increase the SFC’s ability to react in a timely manner to an evolving landscape, marked by an increased interconnection with the Mainland China, an active presence by international players and increased regional competition as an international finance center. It is important to consider translating the operational independence that the regulators have enjoyed into de-jure independence, through modifications in the current legal governance arrangements for both SFC and HKMA.
International Monetary Fund
This paper provides background information to the main Board paper, “The Role and Limits of Unconventional Monetary Policy.” This paper is divided in five distinct sections, each focused on a different topic covered in the main paper, though most relate to bond purchase programs. As a result, this paper centers on the experience of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), mostly leaving the European Central Bank (ECB) aside given its focus on restoring the functioning of financial markets and intermediation. Section A explores whether bond purchase programs were effective at decreasing bond yields and, if so, through which channels. Section B goes one step further in evaluating whether bond purchase programs had—or can be expected to have—significant effects on real growth and inflation. Section C studies the spillover effects of bond purchases on both advanced and emerging market economies, using very similar methods as introduced in the first section. Section D breaks from the immediate focus on bond purchases to discuss how inflation might decrease the debt burden in advanced economies, in light of possible pressures that could fall (or be perceived to fall) on central banks. Finally, Section E discusses the possible risks of exiting given the very large central bank balance sheets.
International Monetary Fund
A detailed assessment report on the observance of the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems-International Organization of Securities Commissions recommendations for China’s Securities Settlement Systems and Central Counterparties is presented. The bond market comprises the interbank bond market, the exchange bond market, and the bank counter market. The two stock exchanges, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, have been established in 1990 and offer trading in the same type of securities, being shares, bonds, funds, and warrants.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses a detailed assessment report on the observance of China’s compliance with the International Organization of Securities Commission's objectives and principles of securities regulation. The reform of nontradable shares introduced a market-based pricing system for so-called nontradable shares in listed companies closely held by government and semigovernment authorities. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has the ability to share public and nonpublic information with both domestic and foreign counterparts without other external process, for the purpose of performing regulatory and supervisory functions.
Mr. Alessandro Rebucci, Mr. Akito Matsumoto, Pietro Cova, and Massimiliano Pisani
We study equity price volatility in general equilibrium with news shocks about future productivity and monetary policy. As West (1988) shows, in a partial equilibrium present discounted value model, news about the future cash flow reduces asset price volatility. We show that introducing news shocks in a canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model may not reduce asset price volatility under plausible parameter assumptions. This is because, in general equilibrium, the asset cash flow itself may be affected by the introduction of news shocks. In addition, we show that neglecting to account for policy news shocks (e.g., policy announcements) can potentially bias empirical estimates of the impact of monetary policy shocks on asset prices.
International Monetary Fund
This paper evaluates the Observance of Standards and Codes on the International Organization of Securities Commission (IOSCO) Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation for New Zealand. New Zealand equity markets are comparatively small with market capitalization of about 44 percent of GDP. Reflecting a preference for property investment, ownership of New Zealand-listed equities remains mostly in the hands of offshore investors and domestic institutional investors, with only about one-fourth held directly by households. Securities market intermediaries include sharebrokers, futures dealers, investment advisers, and managers of collective investment schemes, including contributory mortgage brokers.
International Monetary Fund
The paper documents institutional reforms that have taken place in the government debt markets of many industrial countries since the early 1980s, and investigates the impact of three key changes: (i) the move from relationship financing to market funding; (ii) the introduction of options; and (iii) the introduction of futures. Variance ratio tests on bond data for 14 industrial countries indicate that the move to market funding increased the volatility of bond yields and improved the informational efficiency of the secondary markets. The introduction of options and futures increased the informational efficiency of the underlying market, but did not have a stabilizing effect.
Takatoshi Ito and Wen-Ling Lin
This paper examines the impact of changes in margin requirements on returns, transaction volumes, and price volatility of Nikkei 225 futures on the Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE) and the Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX). An increase in margin requirement on one exchange is shown to reduce trading volume in the implementing exchange and to shift trade to the competing exchange. Price volatility or returns are not systematically affected by changes in margin requirements. The loss of OSE’s market share of Nikkei futures trade is partly due to the increased transactions costs (relative to SIMEX), including the margin requirement.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper presents the international financial markets aspects of the current turbulence in emerging markets. The ongoing international diversification of institutional portfolios, the return of flight capital, and the cyclical developments in industrial countries combined to generate a significant volume of capital flows into emerging markets in the developing world. In keeping with developments in global markets, these flows have increasingly been in the form of purchases of tradable bonds, equities, and money market instruments—securities that can readily be sold when sentiments change. The volume of financial wealth that can flee a developing country is now sufficiently large that it can overwhelm any attempt to maintain an exchange rate incompatible with fundamentals. Thus the possibility for investors—domestic and foreign—to exert discipline over policy has strengthened significantly. The resolution of sovereign debt-servicing difficulties has become more complicated with the changes in instruments and participants in international markets.

Mr. M. G O'Callaghan

Abstract

This paper describes the structure of the world gold market, its sources of supply and demand, and how it functions. The paper examines the composition and origin of physical stocks of gold, their flows, and their market destination and also reviews the operation of bullion and paper gold markets.