Business and Economics > Investments: Bonds

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Mr. Itai Agur, Mr. Damien Capelle, Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, and Mr. Damiano Sandri
This paper reviews the theoretical arguments in favor and against MF and presents an empirical assessment of the risks that it may pose for inflation.
Mr. Waikei R Lam
With policy rates near the zero bound, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has introduced a series of unconventional monetary easing measures since late 2009 in response to lingering deflation and a weakening economy. These measures culminated in a new Asset Purchase Program under the Comprehensive Monetary Easing (CME) which differs from typical quantitative easing in other central banks by including purchases of risky asset in an effort to reduce term and risk premia. This note assesses the impact of monetary easing measures on financial markets using an event study approach. It finds that the BoJ's monetary easing measures has had a statistically significant impact on lowering bond yields and improving equity prices, but no notable impact on inflation expectations.
International Monetary Fund
The Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market has been stable in Japan since the earthquake, but the factors holding down JGB yields could diminish over time. To limit these risks, fiscal policy should aim to reduce public debt quickly and lengthen maturity of JGBs. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) easing measures have had a significant and broad-based impact on financial markets. Policies to support employment and protect incomes have been effective, but have to be phased out and complemented with training and job search assistance programs to facilitate a smooth reallocation of labor.
Mr. Gauti B. Eggertsson and Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
This paper examines the effects of quantitative easing implemented by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) since early 2001, looking specifically at the impact on inflation expectations and real asset prices. It suggests a number of possible channels through which quantitative easing may have exerted influence, and reviews some of the empirical evidence linking open market operations and long-term bond purchases to real yields and other asset prices. It argues that quantitative easing has had smaller effects on nominal and real variables than desired, mainly because the BoJ has not succeeded in credibly communicating its policy intentions once the zero bound on short-term rates ceases to be binding. It argues that setting clear goals for inflation and a return to interest rate targeting are not only key elements of a successful strategy to avoid deflation, but are also essential to pin down expectations and avoid instability once deflation wanes.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews Indonesia’s 2004 Article IV Consultation and Post-Program Monitoring Discussions. The Article IV consultation provided a timely opportunity to assess achievements under recent IMF arrangements and to take stock of remaining challenges. The discussions focused on policies to strengthen Indonesia’s growth prospects. The emphasis was on identifying a set of policy actions to bolster competitiveness and growth that the authorities could implement even in an election environment. The mission recommended that the government focus on measures to address weaknesses in taxation and regulation, labor market uncertainties, and weaknesses in the legal system.
Mr. Michael Kumhof and Stijn van Nieuwerburgh
This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium monetary portfolio choice model that accomplishes two objectives. First, it provides a theory of currency risk premia based on a weak and plausible form of fiscal nonneutrality. Domestic and foreign bonds become imperfect substitutes, the uncovered interest parity condition is replaced with a portfolio balance equation, and the central bank can separately choose the growth rate of its nominal anchor and the domestic bond interest rate. Second, it can turn be shown that, and how, sterilized intervention affects equilibrium allocations and prices.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Open market operations are the major instruments of monetary control in industrial countries and are becoming important in developing countriesand countries in transition. This paper shows how open market operationsare related to other monetary instruments, discusses the role of the market and of the central bank, and takes a brief, practical look at howopen market operations are actually conducted.

Mr. Bennett T. McCallum and Ms. Monica Hargraves
The paper presents a measure of monetary impulse that is intended to reflect the medium-term inflationary implications of a nation’s current monetary policy. The measure consists of the growth rate of the monetary base, adjusted for reserve requirement changes and augmented by an implicit forecast of future growth rates of base velocity. Time series plots of the impulse measure for the G-7 countries are presented, and are compared with plots of inflation and of two alternative monetary indicators—the yield curve slope and the growth rate of a broad monetary aggregate. The impulse measure serves well as a medium-term indicator of future inflation, and on balance matches or outperforms the alternative indicators.
Mr. Jeffrey A. Frankel
Some countries undergoing exchange-rate-based stabilization and financial liberalization in Latin America, Asia and elsewhere have faced large capital inflows since 1991. Many have tried to sterilize the reserve inflows. Calvo, Leiderman, and Reinhart argue essentially that sterilization is more difficult than generally realized, due to the interest costs on sterilization bonds. Reisen argues essentially that sterilization is easier than generally believed. This paper reviews the issues in the simplest textbook model and concludes that local interest rates are not likely to rise if the source of the disturbance is an exogenous capital inflow, but will rise if the disturbance is an increase in money demand or an increase in exports.

Abstract

Edited by George M. von Furstenberg, this volume presents the rethinking of the functions and purposes served by international monetary arrangements at leading universities, banks, and official institutions.