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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) was conducted amid an economic rebound two years into the COVID-19 pandemic that had a limited impact on the financial sector. Several member states have experienced political instability, with coups in Burkina Faso and Mali leading to economic sanctions for the latter, and an attempted coup in Guinea-Bissau. Yet, short of further political deterioration, economic recovery is expected to persist. The last FSAP was conducted in 2008.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Fund surveillance needs to evolve to face the economic and financial challenges that will shape the global landscape for years to come. This paper first takes stock of the current economic and financial landscape. To better serve the membership in this context, Fund surveillance should be prioritized around four key priorities: (i) confronting risks and uncertainties: policymakers will need to actively manage the risks of a highly uncertain outlook; (ii) preempting and mitigating adverse spillovers: shifting patterns of global economic integration will bring about new channels for contagion and policy spillovers; (iii) fostering economic sustainability: a broader understanding of sustainability to better account for the impact of economic and non-economic developments on stability; and (iv) unified policy advice: better accounting for the trade-offs and synergies among different policy combinations in the face of limited policy space and overlapping priorities, tailored to country-specific circumstances. These priorities should further enhance the traction of Fund surveillance.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Rephasing of Access Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) shock hit the economy hard amid an already challenging social and security situation. The decline in economic activity, spillovers from global trade and financing shocks, along with fiscal measures to combat the crisis have created an urgent balance-of-payments and fiscal financing needs. The authorities have responded quickly to the pandemic with containment measures, stepped up healthcare response, and emergency measures to support households and business affected by the outbreak. The regional central bank responded with measures to support liquidity in the banking system. Given the urgent balance of payment need caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the infeasibility of completing a review under the ECF arrangement, staff supports these requests and welcomes commitments to safeguard transparency and accountability in the use of emergency funds. The RCF is expected to cover about 40 percent of the financing gap in 2020 and is expected to play a catalytic role. The authorities are actively engaged with other donors, including the World Bank, to cover the remaining financing needs.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic has added to Mali’s significant security and social challenges. The outbreak reached Mali relatively late, with first confirmed cases on March 24 and 293 cases (seventeen deaths) as of April 22, 2020. The authorities took early containment measures in March and announced a package of economic and social support measures in early April. Growth is expected to decelerate sharply in 2020 as a result of declines in travel, trade, FDI and remittances. Job losses, weak social safety nets amid high informality, food insecurity and a fragile health system will exacerbate social challenges. Lower economic activity and the policy response will exert significant pressures on the budget and the balance of payments, opening financing gaps of 2.9 and 3.1 percent of GDP, respectively.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Mali’s Request for Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The economic outlook for Mali remains positive; however, subject to important downside risks. The potential real growth rate is estimated at about 5 percent per year and inflation is expected to continue to be contained by the CFAF’s peg to the euro. Downside risks relate to the possible further deterioration of the security situation, potential shocks to the terms of trade (the price of gold, cotton, and fuels), and adverse weather conditions. Going forward, it is essential to pursue greater spending efficiency, including through strengthened project selection and execution, as well as the rationalization of subsidies. The authorities’ efforts to increase financial inclusion and narrow the gender gap, including by direct measures to economically empower women are welcome. The new ECF arrangement aims to support the authorities’ development strategy (CREDD) for strong and inclusive growth through job creation, economic diversification, and greater resiliency. The main focus in the short term is to significantly increase revenue collection to allow for development spending and to reform the energy sector.