This Selected Issues paper analyzes the properties of the fiscal surplus rule, a key pillar of Chile’s macroeconomic framework. The findings suggest that the rule is near the volatility-minimizing efficiency frontier. The paper assesses the vulnerability of the Chilean banking system to external and domestic shocks, and examines recent trade performance. The study finds that both exports and imports have been driven predominantly by demand factors. There is also some evidence that trade liberalization has contributed to the recent trade expansion, but exchange rate effects are only found to have a marginal impact.
This paper describes how the changed conditions in the international monetary system have undermined the role originally envisaged for the SDR. It argues that the concept of a global stock of international liquidity, which was fundamental to the creation of the SDR, is now no longer relevant. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to satisfy part of the growing demand for international reserves with SDR allocations: (i) there are efficiency gains, as SDRs can be created at zero resource cost, and thus obviate the need for countries to run current account surpluses or engage in expensive borrowing to obtain reserves, and (ii) there would be a reduction in systemic risk, as SDRs would substitute to some extent for borrowed reserves, which are less reliable and predictable source of reserves, especially in times of crisis.
This paper evaluates the importance of auction format on bidding behavior and seller revenue, focusing on differences in performance under uniform-price and discriminatory-price formats. The analysis is based on a standard benchmark model from which empirically-testable hypotheses are derived on the optimal amount of bid shading that generates revenue equivalence between the two formats. Applying this model to data from the IMF gold auctions run in 1976-80, we find evidence of statistically significant shading in excess of the theoretically-derived optimum under the discriminatory format. This evidence suggests greater seller revenue under the uniform-price format.
This paper describes the structure of the world gold market, its sources of supply and demand, and how it functions. The paper examines the composition and origin of physical stocks of gold, their flows, and their market destination and also reviews the operation of bullion and paper gold markets.
This paper describes the structure of the world gold market, its sources of supply and demand, and how it functions. The market has three principal functions in three major locations: the New York futures market speculates on spot prices, which are largely determined in London, whereas physical gold is in large part shipped through Zurich. The market is dominated by large suppliers and gold holders, including monetary authorities. Some unique characteristics of the gold market ensure confidentiality, and as a result, there are gaps in existing knowledge and data. The paper identifies and attempts to fill these gaps.
This paper reviews key findings of the IMF’s Annual Report for the fiscal year ended April 30, 1973. The report highlights that world economic developments in 1972 and the first half of 1973 were dominated by a strong cyclical upsurge in activity, high rates of price inflation, and currency crises and unrest punctuated by another realignment of major currencies in February–March 1973. With key elements of the Bretton Woods system no longer observed, the work of reforming the international monetary system continued in the IMF through the Committee of Twenty.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper describes what the limits to growth are. The paper highlights that many critical variables in global society—particularly population and industrial production—have been growing at a constant percentage rate so that, by now, the absolute increase each year is extremely large. Such increases will become increasingly unmanageable unless deliberate action is taken to prevent such exponential growth. The paper also underscores that physical resources—particularly cultivable land and nonrenewable minerals—and the earth’s capacity to “absorb” pollution are finite.