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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The new administration has committed to continue with the Fund-supported Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of SDR 4,615 million (661 percent of quota, about $6.5 billion) that was approved by the IMF Executive Board on September 30, 2020. The authorities’ objectives under the program are to ensure an environmental-friendly growth with high quality jobs, promote a transparent management of public resources, and ensure equity in the conduct of fiscally sustainable policies. Upon the completion of the Second and Third Reviews under the EFF, an additional SDR $568 million would be made available.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On September 30, 2020, the IMF Executive Board approved a 27-month arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with exceptional access (SDR 4,615 million, 661 percent of quota, about $6.5 billion) to help Ecuador restore macroeconomic stability and pursue the unfinished structural agenda from the previous program. High frequency indicators point to improvements in economic activity after bottoming out in Q2, while oil prices have been declining relative to earlier assumptions, leaving the macroeconomic outlook broadly unchanged over the medium term.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On May 1, 2020, the Executive Board approved an RFI (US$643 million, 67.3 percent of quota), to support the urgent needs of the Ecuadorean economy in the wake of COVID-19 crisis, and the authorities cancelled the three-year Extended Fund Facility arrangement (US$ 4.2 billion, 435 percent of quota). The macroeconomic situation has since deteriorated, prompting the authorities to request a 27-month EFF of SDR 4.615 billion (about US$6.5 billion, 661 percent of quota), to help restore macroeconomic stability, support the most vulnerable groups, and advance the structural reform agenda initiated under the previous EFF.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This chapter presents Ecuador’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) and Cancellation of Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Ecuador is facing urgent and immediate balance of payment (BOP) needs driven by the sharp propagation of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak—Ecuador is one of the hardest hit countries in Latin America—a plummeting of oil prices, and a dramatic collapse of global demand. In the near term, the authorities have taken significant measures to contain the spread of the virus and mitigate the socio-economic impact. Containment measures include the closing of schools and universities, public spaces and noncritical commercial activities, halting public transport, and imposing a nationwide curfew. Additional support from other external partners will be required and critical to close the remaining financing gap and ease budget constraints. The RFI will help Ecuador finance the much-needed health and social assistance spending and catalyze financing from other multilateral financial institutions.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
A 36-month EFF with access of SDR 3.035 billion (435 percent of quota or about US$4.204 billion) was approved on March 11, 2019. Economic activity is projected to decelerate further in 2019 as fiscal consolidation and a slowdown in credit growth weigh on economic growth. However, external financing conditions have improved on the back of rising oil prices and the approval of the IMF program, with sovereign bond spreads falling by 250 basis points since January 1, 2019.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Article IV Consultation discusses that declining oil prices, US dollar appreciation, and limited access to international financing have worsened the fiscal, economic, and financial outlook. The focus of discussions was that despite the weak prospects there are still downside risks in the event that oil prices fall again, external financing becomes even more constrained, or confidence in the economy and the banking system begins to weaken. In the financial system, the main concern resides in a short-term risk of liquidity shortfalls, but credit quality concerns dominate over the medium term. The authorities’ policy response to the imbalances has been timely but still insufficient given the size of the shocks, the urgent nature of the vulnerabilities, and reduced foreign currency reserves. Real GDP is expected to contract significantly this year and next. In order to prevent liquidity risks in the financial system, the authorities should limit recourse to domestic financing and, as necessary, assist in a timely way banks that develop liquidity or capital shortfalls, as well as enhance crisis preparedness and contingency planning.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Ecuador’s 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. The Article IV discussions focused on diagnosing the nature of the imbalances facing Ecuador and the policy changes that will be needed to address them. There was broad agreement that fundamental supply-side efforts will be needed to foster competitiveness, create jobs, rebuild institutions, and make Ecuador a more attractive destination for private investment. Consistent with the findings of the Article IV, the authorities’ policy plan seeks to decisively address the systemic vulnerabilities facing Ecuador. The goals of these policies are to boost competitiveness and job creation, protect the poor and most vulnerable, fortify the institutional foundations for dollarization, and to improve transparency and good governance to public sector operations while strengthening the fight against corruption. The report suggests that improving the social safety net and increasing the effectiveness of public spending, particularly on health and education, will be essential to achieving strong, sustained, and socially equitable growth.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Ecuador’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The Ecuadoran authorities are requesting financial assistance under the IMF’s RFI to address the urgent balance of payments (BOP) needs associated with emergency and reconstruction efforts. Given the urgency of their request, they are not currently in a position to implement a full-fledged upper-credit-tranche program, and they believe they can make suitable adjustments to manage their medium-term BOP challenges. Given the nature of the emergency, the IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a purchase under the RFI.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that since the fourth quarter of 2014, the economy of Ecuador has been hit by external shocks and is slowing down. The sharp decline in the international oil price, by about half for the Ecuadorian mix, significantly undercut oil revenues. In addition, competitiveness is being eroded by the real appreciation of the exchange rate. In the face of the economic slowdown, bank liquidity conditions have tightened, credit growth has slowed, and nonperforming loans have risen. Despite the slowdown, inflation is picking up. Owing to the shocks and expected adjustment, the economy is projected to contract somewhat in 2015, while the external position deteriorates.
Gabriel Di Bella, Mr. Lawrence Norton, Mr. Joseph Ntamatungiro, Ms. Sumiko Ogawa, Issouf Samaké, and Marika Santoro
The oil price decline creates an opportunity to dismantle energy subsidies, which escalated with high oil prices. This paper assesses energy subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean—about 1.8 percent of GDP in 2011–13 (approximately evenly split between fuel and electricity), and about 3.8 percent of GDP including negative externalities. Countries with poorer institutions subsidize more. Energy-rich countries subsidize fuel more, but low-income countries are more likely to subsidize electricity, as are Central America and the Caribbean. Energy subsidies impose fiscal costs, hurting SOEs, competitiveness, and distribution. The paper overviews country experience with subsidy reform, drawing lessons.