Business and Economics > Investments: Commodities

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International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & and Review Department
This paper is the fourth in a series that examines macroeconomic developments and prospects in Low Income Developing Countries (LIDCs). LIDCs are Fund member countries where gross national income (GNI) per capita lies below a threshold level and where external financial linkages and socioeconomic indicators have not lifted them into emerging market status. There are 59 countries in the LIDC grouping, accounting for about one-fifth of the world’s population and 4 percent of global output. The paper examines macroeconomic trends across LIDCs in recent years, contrasting key features of the current situation with the period prior to the 2014 decline in commodity prices. Particular attention is given to the evolution of fiscal positions and public debt levels, including detailed analysis of the drivers of debt accumulation and the current severity of debt vulnerabilities. The analysis is grounded in, and draws on, the analysis and databases used to compile the World Economic Outlook: this report drills down into the WEO database to look in detail at the experience of LIDCs.
Isha Agrawal, Rupa Duttagupta, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bankspecific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the expansion of Guyana’s real economic activity by 3.3 percent in 2016. Subdued agricultural commodity prices, bad weather, and delays in public investment weighed down activity, while large increases in gold output helped support growth. Consumer prices increased by 1.5 percent in the 12 months ending in December 2016 as weather-related shocks to food prices reversed the deflationary trend. The macroeconomic outlook is positive for 2017 and the medium term. Growth is projected at 3.5 percent in 2017, supported by an increase in public investment, continued expansion in the extractive sector, and a recovery in rice production.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper explains Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Extension of the Arrangement report for Benin. The IMF report shows that inflation has returned to normal levels since the petroleum price shock in early 2012 when neighboring Nigeria reduced fuel subsidies, and external imbalances were revised downward. Problems with customs reform, which delayed the 5th fifth review, have been addressed by developing a new approach that takes into account lessons from a suspended previous reform attempt and international best practices.
Mr. Thomas William Dorsey
En avril 2009, les conseils d’administration de l’IDA et du FMI ont convenu que la Côte d’Ivoire avait rempli les conditions pour atteindre le point de décision dans le cadre de l’Initiative en faveur des pays pauvres très endettées (PPTE) renforcée. Le montant de l’allègement ayant fait l’objet d’un engagement au point de décision était de 3004,9 milliards de dollars en valeur actualisée (VA) à fin 2007. Ce montant correspondait à une réduction en VA de la dette extérieure admissible à 250 % des recettes à fin 2007, d’où un facteur commun de réduction de 23,6 %.