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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Tanzania’s Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for a Six-Month Extension of the PSI. Tanzania’s macroeconomic performance has been strong, albeit with a recent deceleration in economic growth. Program performance under the PSI has been broadly satisfactory. Most quantitative targets for December 2016 and March 2017 were met. Although progress in structural reforms identified under the program has been generally slow, the authorities have stepped up efforts to advance them. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a 6-month extension of the PSI arrangement and recommends completion of its sixth review.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Tanzania’s Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI). Tanzania’s macroeconomic performance remains strong. Program performance since the last review has been uneven. All end-2014 assessment criteria were met, though the indicative target on tax revenue collection was missed. Good progress was made on structural benchmarks. Shortfalls in domestic revenue continued in early 2015, and delays were incurred in mobilizing external financing and adjusting expenditure in the context of the mid-year budget review. The IMF staff recommends completion of the second PSI review and modification of assessment criteria on net international reserves and net domestic financing for end-June 2015.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
KEY ISSUES Macroeconomic developments remain favorable. Economic growth was strong during the first half of 2014 and is expected to remain close to 7 percent. Inflation remains in mid-single digits, consistent with the authorities’ target of 5 percent by June 2015. New national accounts statistics show an upward revision of the 2007 GDP by 28 percent. The full series will be reflected in the program at the next review. Program performance through June was broadly satisfactory but has deteriorated since and risks have risen. While all end-June assessment criteria were met, most end-September indicative targets were missed. The continuous assessment criterion on non-accumulation of external arrears was also missed and structural reform implementation was slower than expected. These developments reflect a range of factors, including delays in donor financing related to governance concerns, delays in mobilizing external non-concessional borrowing (ENCB), revenue shortfalls, the authorities’ decision to front-load domestically-financed capital expenditure, and coordination issues. Discussions focused on how to mitigate risks to budget implementation related to financing uncertainty and revenue shortfalls. Meeting the fiscal deficit target for 2014/15 will require revising downward revenue and expenditure during the mid-year budget review. Addressing forcefully and expeditiously the governance concerns arising from the IPTL case will be critical both for the resumption of donor financing and the business environment. In the meantime, the financing mix will tilt towards larger and more front-loaded ENCB. Better coordination of monetary and fiscal policies is required to reduce, and eventually eliminate, recourse to conversion of liquidity paper into financing paper. Government arrears will be addressed comprehensively. A plan to verify and clear existing suppliers’ arrears (which continued to accumulate in 2013/14), better monitor, and prevent the emergence of new ones will be implemented in the coming year. Broad principles of a strategy to deal with arrears to pension funds have been agreed. Staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the first PSI review, and proposes a waiver for non-observance of an assessment criterion and the modification of assessment criteria.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for the United Republic of Tanzania. All end-June 2009 quantitative performance/assessment criteria were met. Good progress has been achieved with structural reforms. The Executive Board approved the Fifth Review of the PSI and a 12-month arrangement under the high access component of the Exogenous Shocks Facility in the amount of SDR 218.79 million (110 percent of quota) on May 29, 2009.
International Monetary Fund
Indonesia’s external borrowing spreads increased by more than 1000 bps from mid-2007 to late 2008, before subsiding in recent months. The large increase in spreads prompted questions about whether the spreads adequately reflect the improvements in fundamentals made over the past few years. This Selected Issues paper examines the determinants of Indonesia’s spreads, and finds that fundamentals can explain both the level of and the increase in spreads. It uses a cross-country panel regression model of emerging market sovereign spreads to yield valuable insights into the pattern of Indonesia’s sovereign spreads.
International Monetary Fund
Limited progress has been made in addressing Nepal’s structural weaknesses in tax administration and public financial management. Macroeconomic performance under the recent Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF)-supported program has been stable. The outlook for 2007–08 remains stable. Although the macroeconomic performance has been stable, progress on structural reforms has been held back by the fragile political circumstances. Public enterprises and the Nepal Oil Corporation, in particular, pursue quasi-fiscal activities involving significant subsidies. Nepal’s growth prospects depend most importantly on a peaceful political transition.
Patrick A. Imam, Eleonara Granziera, and Mr. Norbert Funke
This paper identifies factors that contribute to a fast recovery in growth after persistent negative terms of trade shocks, using a sample of 159 countries for 1970-2006. The results suggest that policies matter. Fast recoveries are fairly robustly related to real exchange rate depreciation and improvements in government stability and the institutional environment. A timely increase in aid may also support recovery.
International Monetary Fund
Fueled by a rebound in agriculture and improved electricity supply, economic growth reached 6.7 percent in 2006–07, and is on track to exceed 7 percent in 2007–08. In mid-2007, significant portfolio capital inflows put pressure on liquidity management. In the first quarter of 2007–08, fiscal performance was strong, but inflationary pressures intensified. After continuing to depreciate in most of 2007, the exchange rate recently reversed course. Strengthening monetary control is the key to reducing inflationary pressures and reining in high and volatile T-bill rates.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The region's prospects look strong. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should reach 6 percent in 2007 and 6¾ percent in 2008. The economic expansion is strongest in oil exporters but cuts across all country groups. This would extend a period of very good performance. In recent years, sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its strongest growth and lowest inflation in over 30 years.

International Monetary Fund
The current account deficit by the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina in recent years has fluctuated to about 20 percent of GDP. But official current account statistics suffer from several shortcomings. Possible sources of the savings required to achieve a fiscal position consistent with long-term fiscal sustainability is discussed. A theoretical model of the trade balance has been developed and used as the basis for estimating a quarterly regression model of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s trade balance. Effective fiscal coordination is essential in Bosnia and Herzegovina.