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Can Sever and Manuel Perez-Archila
This paper builds a framework to quantify the financial stability implications of climate-related transition risk in Colombia. We explore risks imposed on the banking system based on scenarios of an increase in the domestic carbon tax by using bank- and firm-level data. Focusing on the deterioration of firms’ balance sheets and the exposure of banks to different sectors, we assess the extent to which such policy shock would transmit from nonfinancial firms to the banking system. We observe that sectors are affected unevenly by a higher carbon tax. Agriculture, manufacturing, electricity, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation sectors appear to be the most important in the transmission of the risk to the banking system. Results also suggest that a large increase in the carbon tax can generate significant but likely manageable financial stability risks, and that a gradual increase in the carbon tax to meet a higher target over several years could be preferable in terms of financial risks. A gradual increase would also have the benefit of allowing for a smoother adjustment to higher carbon tax for stakeholders.
Bihong Huang, Maria Teresa Punzi, and Yu Wu
This paper assesses the financial risks arising from transition toward a low-emission economy. The environmental DSGE model shows tightening environmental regulation impairs firms’ balance sheets, and consequently threatens financial stability in the short term. The empirical analysis indicates that following the implmentation of Clean Air Action Plan, the default rates of high-polluting firms in a Chinese province rose by around 80 percent. Joint equity commercial banks with higher level of independence were able to appropriately price in their exposure to transition risks, while the Big Five commercial banks failed to factor in such risks.
Mr. Jonathan Levin
Environmental effects which were insignificant in the past, when the fewer concentrations of population or products of modern technology allowed the vast absorptive capacity of nature to act as a sink, are quite evident today--in the pollution of air or water, the overuse of potentially renewable fishing or forestry resources, or the wasteful extraction of nonrenewable, mineral, resources. To contribute to an overall understanding of environmental issues, this paper sets out a general analytical framework encompassing the physical character of environmental problems, the behavioral factors that contribute to them, and the principal approaches to their prevention and correction.