Western Hemisphere > Bahamas, The

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, Mr. Saad N Quayyum, and Sibabrata Das
The paper analyzes the impact of natural disasters on per-capita GDP growth. Using a quantile regressions and growth-at-risk approach, the paper examines the impact of disasters and policy choices on the distribution of growth rather than simply its average. We find that countries that have in place disaster preparedness mechanisms and lower public debt have lower probability of witnessing a significant drop in growth as a consequence of a natural disaster, but our innovative methodology in this paper finds that the two policies are complements since their effectiveness vary across different disaster scenarios. While both are helpful for small to mid-size disasters, lower debt—and hence more fiscal space—is more beneficial in the face of very large disasters. A balanced strategy would thus involve both policies.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The economic impact of COVID-19 on The Bahamas is unprecedented. The archipelago was just recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Dorian in the fall of 2019, when the pandemic led to a sudden stop in tourism, the main source of income and employment. The authorities mounted a rapid emergency response to support the economy and vulnerable households and put in place strict containment measures. But amid limited testing and health resources, reopening the economy has been challenging.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Macrofinancial risks stem from the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks to tourism and real estate investment, exposure to frequent and severe hurricanes, and a small and illiquid real estate market. Stress tests reveal the overall banking system is resilient to a range of adverse scenarios given large aggregate capital and liquidity buffers. Some domestic banks and the two largest credit unions are more vulnerable to asset quality shocks and tail risk conditions. Asset quality and profitability are key determinants of financial institutions’ resilience to adverse shocks. Liquidity, market, sovereign and financial contagion risks are low. The offshore banking sector is not a source of traditional banking risks.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that The Bahamas’ real GDP is estimated to have expanded by 1.3 percent in 2017. Economic activity has been supported by the completion of Baha Mar, new foreign direct investment-financed projects, and post-hurricane reconstruction activity. However, air tourist arrivals declined 4 percent in 2017, reflecting the impact of Hurricane Matthew on hotel infrastructure in the Grand Bahama Island. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.5 percent in 2018 and 2.25 percent in 2019 on the back of stronger growth in the United States; the phased opening of Baha Mar; and a pickup in foreign direct investment. Medium-term growth is projected to remain at 1.5 percent, reflecting significant structural impediments.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper makes the case for a rules-based fiscal framework for The Bahamas and discusses its design, calibration, and implementation. The IMF staff recommends adopting a headline deficit ceiling and a cap on current expenditure growth, both calibrated to guide debt toward a suitable medium-term anchor while allowing room for stabilization. A headline deficit target is simpler to communicate and monitor than a structural balance rule. Such a framework would allow expanding capital spending, up to the limit provided by the deficit ceiling, in the event of improvements in revenue performance. Moreover, in line with best practices, the framework should be anchored around a pre-defined medium-term debt target that will guide the calibration of proposed operation rules.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights St. Lucia’s GDP growth, estimated to have reached 0.8 percent in 2016, down from 1.8 percent in 2015. Strong employment growth in agriculture and construction put a dent in unemployment, which declined to 20 percent in the third quarter of 2016. Youth unemployment also fell, but remains very high at 41 percent. GDP is projected to grow at 0.5 percent in 2017, driven mostly by continued strong performance in construction and agriculture. Higher import prices, including for oil, will cause inflation to rise temporarily and, together with weak tourism expenditures, will contribute to wider external imbalances.
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents background on Caribbean small states as context for the main paper, “Macroeconomic Issues in Small States and Implications for Fund Engagement.” It draws on recent analytical work presented at a conference for policy makers in September 2012, in Trinidad and Tobago. Caribbean small states, while sharing many features of other small states (size-related macroeconomic vulnerabilities, lack of economies of scale, and capacity constraints) have specific characteristics which merit attention
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for The Bahamas reports that the largest portion of tourism expenditure in The Bahamas comes from stayover visitors, and total tourism spending has been stagnant. The Bahamas is a small open economy highly dependent on tourism and the offshore financial sector. Private consumption expenditure in the country or countries of origin is the most important determinant of tourism in The Bahamas.