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Rudrani Bhattacharya, Ila Patnaik, and Madhavi Pundit
This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle volatility reduces. For an economy with limited financial openness, and a relatively open trade account, a model with exogenous terms of trade shocks is able to replicate the features of the business cycle.
International Monetary Fund
The Chinese authorities welcomed the spillover analysis, noting that their policies have important global spillover effects. The note also discusses China’s evolving role in global trade, impact of rebalancing on the supply chain, estimating China’s spillovers, elasticities approach, factor pricing, overcapacity, and sustainability risks. It elaborates on the impact of competition from Brazil and Mexico, China’s closed capital account and capital flows to emerging markets, the impact of China’s saving on global financial conditions, and potential impact on global bond markets of reallocating reserves.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Mr. Luca A Ricci, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Jaewoo Lee, Mr. Alessandro Prati, and Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti

Abstract

The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger emphasis on multilateral surveillance, macro-financial linkages, and the implications of globalization. The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER)--formed in the mid-1990s to provide exchange rate assessments for a number of advanced economies from a multilateral perspective--has therefore broadened its mandate to cover both key advanced economies and major emerging market economies. This Occasional Paper summarizes the methodologies that underpin the expanded analysis.

Mr. Luca A Ricci, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Jaewoo Lee, Mr. Alessandro Prati, and Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti

Abstract

The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger emphasis on multilateral surveillance, macro-financial linkages, and the implications of globalization. The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER)--formed in the mid-1990s to provide exchange rate assessments for a number of advanced economies from a multilateral perspective--has therefore broadened its mandate to cover both key advanced economies and major emerging market economies. This Occasional Paper summarizes the methodologies that underpin the expanded analysis.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Vol. 54, No. 2 includes three notable contributions from the Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC) hosted by the IMF in November 2006. Its lead paper, by Olivier Blanchard of Harvard University, is the 2006 Mundell-Fleming Lecture (delivered at the ARC), which analyzes current-account deficits in the advanced economies. Other papers in this issue look at the relationship between international financial integration and the real economy. Other papers discuss whether (or not): i) the next capital account crisis can be predicted; ii) accepted definitions of debt crises are adequate; iii) the Doha Round of trade talks (if they are ever successfully completed) will lead to preference erosion; and finally iv) there is room for political opportunism in countries deciding between money-based or exchange-rate-based stabilization programs.
International Monetary Fund
The current account deficit by the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina in recent years has fluctuated to about 20 percent of GDP. But official current account statistics suffer from several shortcomings. Possible sources of the savings required to achieve a fiscal position consistent with long-term fiscal sustainability is discussed. A theoretical model of the trade balance has been developed and used as the basis for estimating a quarterly regression model of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s trade balance. Effective fiscal coordination is essential in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The Annual Report to the Board of Governors reviews the IMF’s activities and policies during any given year. There are five chapters: (1) Overview, (2) Developments in the Global Economy and Financial Markets, (3) Policies to Secure Sustained and Balanced Global Growth, (4) Reforming and Strengthening the IMF to Better Support Member Countries, and (5) Finances, Organization, and Accountability. The full financial statements for the year are published separately and are also available, along with appendixes and other supplementary materials.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The Annual Report to the Board of Governors reviews the IMF’s activities and policies during any given year. There are five chapters: (1) Overview, (2) Developments in the Global Economy and Financial Markets, (3) Policies to Secure Sustained and Balanced Global Growth, (4) Reforming and Strengthening the IMF to Better Support Member Countries, and (5) Finances, Organization, and Accountability. The full financial statements for the year are published separately and are also available, along with appendixes and other supplementary materials.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

El Informe Anual a la Junta de Gobernadores pasa revista a las actividades y políticas del FMI durante un ejercicio determinado. Consta de cinco capítulos: 1) Panorama general, 2) Evolución económica y financiera mundial, 3) Políticas para lograr un crecimiento mundial sostenido y equilibrado, 4) Reforma y fortalecimiento del FMI para poder respaldar a los países miembros y 5) Finanzas, organización y rendición de cuentas. Los estados financieros completos correspondientes al ejercicio se publican por separado y también están disponibles, junto con los apéndices y otros materiales complementarios.