The Annual Report 2006 to the Board of Governors reviews the IMF’s activities and policies during the financial year (May 1, 2005, through April 30, 2006). The main sections cover the Fund’s Medium-Term Strategy; country, global, and regional surveillance; strengthening surveillance and crisis prevention; IMF program support and crisis resolution; the Fund’s role in low-income countries; technical assistance and training; financial operations and policies; and governance and management of the IMF. Besides the full financial statements for the year, appendixes cover international reserves, financial operations and transactions, principal policy decisions, press communiqués of advisory committees, Executive Directors and their voting power, and changes in the Executive Board’s membership.
Botswana's successive currency devaluations and recent move from a fixed to a crawling peg exchange rate regime raise the question of whether the exchange rate might be misaligned with economic fundamentals. This paper, applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, analyzes the behavior of the real exchange rate for the period 1985-2004. It finds that the pula was undervalued in the later 1980s but overvalued in recent years. Some policy lessons from experiences in other countries with crawling peg arrangements are therefore considered in the context of Botswana.
We combine some newly developed panel co-integration techniques and common factor analysis to analyze the behavior of the real exchange rate (RER) in a sample of 64 developing countries. We study the dynamic of the RER with its economic fundamentals: productivity, the terms of trade, openness, and government spending. We derive a number of common factors that explain the dynamic of the RER in our sample. We find that while some fundamentals such as productivity, terms of trade, and openness are strongly related to these common factors in low-income countries, no such link is found for the middle-income countries. We also derive the misalignment indices, which seem to reproduce recent episodes of overvaluation and undervaluation in a number of countries.
Whether the prospective shift of the peg of the CFA franc to the euro would constitute an exchange rate arrangement with EMU countries would depend critically on the interpretation of the free convertibility of the CFA franc guaranteed by France. Nonetheless, this shift is likely to leave the CFA franc arrangements and operating features of the zone essentially unchanged. The current parity of the CFA franc could be considered in line with fundamentals. The potential economic consequences for the CFA franc countries could be positive over the long term, but there is a risk of a weakening of external competitiveness.
Africa has more countries than any other continent, and hence the largest number of potential monetary and exchange rate arrangements. This paper looks at whether the existing highly fractured monetary arrangements in Sub-Saharan Africa correspond to what might be expected from the theory of optimum currency areas. This is done by analyzing both the size and correlation of real disturbances across countries and the level of intra-regional trade. The results indicate little evidence that Sub-Saharan African countries would benefit in the near future from larger currency unions.
The CFA franc zone comprises a group of countries in central and west Africa whose currencies have been firmly linked to the French franc since 1948. It combines the features of a currency union with those of an exchange rate peg, and an analysis of its effectiveness must examine both dimensions. Viewed from the perspective of a currency union among the African countries, it would appear that the zone would not constitute an optimum currency area. But when France is viewed as an integral part of the system, the benefits—including discipline, credibility, and stability in international competitiveness—become clearer.
Until 1984, the West African Monetary Union (WAMU) consisted of six West African countries- Benin, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. (Mali withdrew from the Union in 1961 and rejoined in 1984; it is therefore excluded from this analysis, which deals with a period when it was not a member.)
This paper presents Selected Decisions and Selected Documents’ Supplement to Tenth issue of the IMF. This Supplement to the Tenth Issue of Selected Decisions of the IMF and Selected Documents contains decisions of a general nature adopted by the IMF since April 30, 1983, the date of publication of the Tenth Issue. Decisions of the IMF that are incorporated in the Rules and Regulations are not reproduced in this volume. The Executive Board approves the proposed method of applying the three-month rule for implementing the procedures for surveillance, set forth in EBD/83/161. The Executive Board has reviewed the document ‘Surveillance over Exchange Rate Policies’ as provided in paragraph 2 of the Executive Board Decision No. 5392-(77/63), adopted April 29, 1977, and will review it again at an appropriate time not later than April 1, 1986.
Mr. Saleh M. Nsouli, Mr. John B. McLenaghan, and Mr. Klaus-Walter Riechel
One of the principal aims of the effort to integrate the economies of the 16 member countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is to expand intra-Community trade. This objective is to be achieved partly through the elimination of quantitive and other restrictions on trade.