Middle East and Central Asia > Azerbaijan, Republic of

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Patrick A. Imam and Jonathan R. W. Temple
We investigate the existence of a middle-income trap using finite state Markov chains, constant growth thresholds, and mean passage times. As well as studying output per head, we examine the dynamics of its proximate determinants: TFP, the capital-output ratio, and human capital. We find upwards mobility for the capital-output ratio and human capital, but not for relative TFP. The lack of upwards mobility in relative TFP, at least from an intermediate level, suggests that escaping the middle-income category can take many years, and such traps may become increasingly apparent in the years to come.
Mahmut Kutlukaya
The mission assisted the staff of the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan (CBAR) in compiling financial soundness indicators (FSIs) in line with the IMF’s 2019 FSIs Compilation Guide. Specifically, the mission assisted the CBAR to compile 14 core and 9 additional monthly FSIs for deposit takers, one additional monthly FSI on real estate markets, and two additional quarterly FSIs on the size of other financial corporation’s subsector.