Western Hemisphere > Aruba

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Olga Bespalova
This paper improves short-term forecasting models of monthly tourism arrivals by estimating and evaluating a time-series model with exogenous regressors (ARIMA-X) using a case of Aruba, a small open tourism-dependent economy. Given importance of the US market for Aruba, it investigates informational value of Google Searches originating in the USA, flight capacity utilization on the US air-carriers, and per capita demand of the US consumers, given the volatility index in stock markets (VIX). It yields several insights. First, flight capacity is the best variable to account for the travel restrictions during the pandemic. Second, US real personal consumption expenditure becomes a more significnat predictor than income as the former better captured impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on the consumers’ behavior, while income boosted by the pandemic fiscal support was not fully directed to spending. Third, intercept correction improves the model in the estimation period. Finally, the pandemic changed econometric relationships between the tourism arrivals and their main determinants, and accuracy of the forecast models. Going forward, the analysts should re-estimate the models. Out-of-sample forecasts with 5 percent confidence intervals are produced for 18 months ahead.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Aruba managed to contain the pandemic in the first months of the outbreak but experienced a resurgence of new infections in the summer. The economic impact of COVID-19 is particularly severe given Aruba’s high dependency on tourism. While the authorities’ swift response has helped contain the human and economic damage, it could not avoid a severe GDP contraction.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ economic recovery from the global economic crisis has been curbed by a series of significant natural disasters. These, combined with the economic downturn following the global financial crisis, have prevented the economy from returning to its long-term potential real GDP growth. The overall fiscal balance is estimated to have narrowed to 4.75 percent of GDP in 2014. After an estimated 1.1 percent growth rate in 2014, growth is projected to pick up modestly to 2.1 percent in 2015 on improvements in tourism and agriculture and enhanced implementation of much-needed rehabilitation and reconstruction projects.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba has been recovering from a severe double-dip recession. The economy faced two major shocks over the past five years—the global financial crisis and shutdown of the Valero oil refinery in 2012. After a strong recovery in 2013 with growth reaching 4.75 percent, the pace of activity moderated in 2014. In 2015, growth is projected to rise to 2.25 percent. The tourism sector—the mainstay of the Aruban economy—is envisaged to grow, albeit at a slower rate. Moreover, domestic demand is slated to recover notably amid subsiding policy uncertainty and as key public-private partnership projects move forward.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes sustaining potential growth in Aruba. As in the other Caribbean countries, there are growing concerns in Aruba about the slowdown in economic growth over the past two decades and the consequent tepid outlook for potential growth. Tackling such concerns requires identifying the underlying factors. This paper presents an overview of Aruba’s economic growth performance since 1990, analyzes factors behind the slowdown, and discusses how potential growth can be sustained. It suggests that Aruba should aim to finance its renewable energy and other future growth initiatives sustainably.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba underlies long-term growth and fiscal sustainability. Aruba’s fiscal position has been deteriorating since the turn of the century, and the medium-term fiscal sustainability analysis shows a continuous weakening ahead of population aging. An upfront and ambitious fiscal consolidation, significantly lowering the deficit and reducing the level of public debt, seems necessary. On the pension front, measures could include increasing the mandatory retirement age and expanding the contribution base.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for Netherlands Antilles examines the economic growth in Small Island Economies. The paper finds that the Small Island Economies as a group grew faster than the rest of the world during 1960–85. The paper analyzes whether Small Island Economies respond to the same set of growth determinants as other economies, and concludes that growth is determined by the same factors and macroeconomic policy choices. The paper presents possible economic challenges that Small Island Economies might face owing to their size.
International Monetary Fund
The statistical data on indicators of tourism activity, estimated GDP and components, real GDP, contributions to real GDP growth, changes in the consumer price index, legal minimum wages, summary of trends in public finance, and tax revenue of Aruba are presented in the paper. The data on operational budget of the social insurance bank, government debt, balance- of-payments summary, monetary survey, monetary developments, and changes in sources of broad money with respect to Aruba are also presented.